The Bureau of Reclamation (BOR) has released its Final Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) for post-2026 Colorado River operations, proposing a management framework that could require up to 3 million acre-feet of annual water reductions in the Lower Basin while allowing the seven basin states to continue negotiating a long-term agreement.
“The Department has a responsibility to ensure the Colorado River system remains reliable and resilient for the millions of Americans, communities and industries that depend on it,” said Secretary of the Interior Doug Burgum. “This framework provides the flexibility to respond to changing hydrologic conditions while preserving the opportunity for the Basin States to continue working toward durable, consensus-based solutions.”
The final EIS replaces the Colorado River operating guidelines adopted in 2007 as the basin enters a new era of water management. BOR said 26 years of drought have left Lake Powell and Lake Mead at their lowest combined levels since 1963, while river flows continue to fall below historical assumptions. Despite more than three years of negotiations involving states, Tribes and other stakeholders, no long-term agreement was reached before the current guidelines expire Oct. 1.
Adaptive operating framework
Rather than establishing a single operating plan, BOR’s preferred alternative creates a flexible framework for managing the Colorado River through 2036. Instead of setting fixed annual releases, it establishes operating principles and “sideboards” that define the range of future management decisions while allowing operating guidelines to be updated about every two years as hydrologic conditions change. The framework also preserves the option of incorporating future consensus agreements if basin states reach a long-term solution.
The agency said the adaptive approach is intended to provide certainty in the decision-making process while remaining flexible as drought conditions evolve. The agency noted that average annual inflows since 2000 have fallen to 12.9 million acre-feet (maf), well below the 18 maf assumed under the 1922 Colorado River Compact, while basin water use has continued to outpace supplies.
Between 2020 and 2024, consumptive use averaged 13.1 maf, including 3.8 maf in the Upper Basin, 6.5 maf in the Lower Basin and 1.4 maf for Mexico and evaporation.
Under the proposal, annual releases from Lake Powell could range from 5-12 maf, with reductions of up to 3 maf possible in the Lower Basin states of Arizona, California and Nevada. It also allows conserved water to be stored in Lake Powell and Lake Mead of 8 maf and 3 maf, respectively. It includes up to 200,000 acre-feet of voluntary conservation in the Upper Basin when water conditions allow.
States, Tribes weigh in
The final EIS drew mixed reactions, with Lower Basin officials opposing what they view as disproportionate water reductions, while Upper Basin leaders said the framework provides a workable short-term path as negotiations toward a broader agreement continue.
Arizona Gov. Katie Hobbs (D) said the final EIS includes options she considers unacceptable because they could place an unfair share of future water reductions on her state. However, she said the document also leaves room for the federal government to adopt the Lower Basin proposal developed for 2027 and 2028, which she argued would distribute conservation more equitably while protecting Arizona’s agricultural economy, manufacturing base and growing technology sector.
The Arizona Department of Water Resources echoed those concerns, saying the final EIS incorporates many elements of the Lower Basin proposal but does not provide a balanced long-term approach. The agency criticized the framework for Lower Basin reductions of up to 3 million acre-feet annually under the existing priority system without requiring similar reductions from the Upper Basin or making greater use of water stored in reservoirs above Lake Powell.
Nevada Gov. Joe Lombardo (R) also criticized the proposal, saying his state has spent decades investing in conservation and water recycling and is prepared to do its part under a plan based on shared sacrifice. However, he argued the final EIS could impose unrealistic reductions on Nevada that would carry significant economic and environmental consequences.
In contrast, the governors of Colorado, Wyoming, Utah and New Mexico said they were encouraged that the framework better reflects today’s water supply realities. While emphasizing that key agreements remain unfinished, the Upper Basin governors said the plan provides a practical way to manage the river in the short term while negotiations continue toward a seven-state consensus.
The Colorado River Indian Tribes also welcomed portions of the proposal, saying it protects existing priority-based water rights rather than imposing across-the-board shortages. Chairwoman Amelia Flores also urged the federal government to improve maintenance of Tribal irrigation systems and provide more meaningful government-to-government consultation as the new operating framework moves forward.
BOR is expected to issue a Record of Decision next, establishing operating guidelines for 2027 and 2028 while providing the framework for river operations through 2036. — Charles Wallace, WLJ contributing editor
