America’s beef prices are headed sharply higher, according to Omaha Steaks President and CEO Nate Rempe, who says the U.S. is “barreling toward a $10-a-pound reality” for ground beef.
Speaking on Fox Business on Nov. 14, Rempe said that a historic convergence between a shrinking domestic herd and strong domestic demand is pushing beef into uncharted price territory.
“The herd is at a 70-year low, demand is at an all-time high, and the net result is prices are through the roof,” Rempe said. “By the third quarter of 2026, families are going to see $10-a-pound ground beef in the grocery store … I don’t believe we’ll see prices come down in any meaningful way until sometime in 2027.”
Fox Business cited the latest Consumer Price Index, which shows price increases from January to September. According to the index, beef and veal prices rose 14.7% year over year, while uncooked ground beef climbed 12.9%. But Rempe said these increases are only the early ripple effects of a deeper supply imbalance. “Supply is going to continue to shrink as fewer cattle are going to market,” he warned.
Rempe acknowledged that foreign beef plays a role but emphasized that imports are nowhere near large enough to counter domestic shortages.
“Argentinian beef only makes up about 2% of the total beef supply in America. So, the domestic supply is a super critical component to keeping prices low,” he said.
His comments came the same day as the White House announced several trade deals that could reduce tariffs on beef. But even with lower import barriers, Rempe stressed that U.S. herd size—not global trade—is the determining force in the coming price wave.
With the holiday season approaching, Rempe said Omaha Steaks plans to keep its core gift packages at the same price points customers have seen for the last four years.
“We’re going to flex our muscle at Omaha Steaks and hold our primary gift packages at the same prices we’ve had the last 48 months … leveraging our vertical integration,” he said.
But Rempe cautioned that even his company can’t defy long-term market forces. Once prices reach unsustainable levels, “it doesn’t matter what technology we’re using … beef is on the way up.”
Rempe said consumers will need to adapt, using tools such as digital grocery apps or AI-powered meal planners to stretch their dollars. He urged families to consider switching to 80/20 ground beef, which delivers a better yield after cooking.
Rollins pushes back
Just three days after Rempe’s interview aired, USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins offered a very different outlook. Speaking with Fox Business host Maria Bartiromo on Nov. 17, Rollins said she respects Rempe but rejects his long-range forecast.
“I do believe his forecast is not going to be correct … the idea that we won’t get prices down until 2027—I think there are a couple of important factors here,” Rollins said.
Rollins placed significant blame on the previous administration, which she argued “waged a literal war on cattle” by pushing to shrink herd sizes due to climate concerns. Combined with years of drought and strong domestic demand—up 8% by USDA’s estimates—the result is a market caught in a “perfect storm.”
But Rollins said the Trump administration’s new policies will reverse course much sooner than Rempe predicts. Among the measures Rollins cited were:
• Opening 5 million acres of additional U.S. grazing land.
• Reopening the southern border to cattle imports once New World screwworm infestations are fully under control.
• Rebuilding herds through new federal support mechanisms.
• Elevating beef in the upcoming Dietary Guidelines, which she said will boost both demand and producer confidence.
“Our formulas are showing that prices will start coming down as soon as next spring, and certainly by summer and fall of next year,” Rollins said.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent echoed Rollins’ comments, speaking to Fox News on Nov. 16 and expanding on the supply-side challenges while rejecting the idea that $10 beef is inevitable.
“The beef market is a very specialized market… and this is the perfect storm, again, something we inherited,” Bessent said.
Bessent explained that the New World screwworm has led to the closure of the border to protect U.S. herds. Like Rollins, Bessent said the administration is moving swiftly to stabilize the supply chain and reopen the border once the disease threat is fully contained. And he emphasized that broader economic policies will soon give Americans more breathing room.
“We inherited this terrible inflation. We are flattening it out … and I believe we’re going to push it down. Energy prices are down, interest rates are down,” he said. Bessent pointed to tax changes—including no taxes on tips, overtime or Social Security, plus new deductions for buying American-made cars—that will increase take-home pay.
Rollins offered reassurance but acknowledged the market’s complexity, stating the Trump administration is “hyper focused” on stabilizing cattle supply and affordability. — Charles Wallace, WLJ contributing editor
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