Rainfall across Texas and cooler temperatures provided agricultural producers some relief from drought and extreme heat over recent weeks, but most areas remain in a moisture deficit, according to the Texas state climatologist and Texas A&M AgriLife Extension Service agronomists.
John Nielsen-Gammon, Ph.D., state climatologist in Texas A&M’s Department of Atmospheric Sciences, said most areas of the state received above-average rainfall during August but were still behind average rainfall amounts for the year.
“We’ve seen drought contraction across the state, and last week’s rainfall should show improvement in the upcoming Drought Monitor later this week,” Nielsen-Gammon said. “But the rain is over for now. It looks like we’re now entering a dry stretch and have seen all the improvement we are going to see for a while.”
AgriLife Extension agronomists Reagan Noland, Ph.D.; Jourdan Bell, Ph.D.; and Ronnie Schnell, Ph.D. said the rains helped, but they noted their respective regions were still gripped by drought.
The most recent Texas Drought Monitor map produced by the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska shows reduced drought conditions around the state. The Drought Severity and Coverage Index (DSCI), which ranges from 0-500 and calculates the cumulative drought data for an area, showed the drought peaked at 380 on Aug. 8. The DSCI was 251 on Sept. 1.
Nielsen-Gammon said rainfall amounts were highly variable across much of the state. The wettest parts included a swath between Del Rio and the Lower Rio Grande Valley and the area between Fort Worth and the Arkansas/Louisiana border. The Texas Panhandle picked up the least amount of precipitation over the past 30 days.
Noland said an important aspect of the recent weather was that the storm systems delivered cooler temperatures and cloudy days along with the rainfall. That contrasted with the limited rainfall received earlier in May and June, which was quickly lost to hot and windy conditions.
Forecast still drier than normal
Nielsen-Gammon said a La Niсa weather pattern is expected to hold through fall and winter, which means below-average precipitation and above-average temperatures for Texas historically. The above-normal expectations for hurricanes and tropical storms could deliver moisture, but those storms typically bring destruction as well.
“We haven’t reached peak hurricane season, and we are up to ‘E’ with a few storms brewing, but it seems we’ve avoided a very active season,” he said. “It’s even more important that no hurricane landfalls have occurred. We’re better off with a widespread rain to break the drought, but weather patterns don’t appear to be cooperating following the second-hottest summer on record.”
The arid conditions took their toll on most dryland crop acres, and irrigated fields struggled to keep up with plant water demands over the course of the growing season, according to numerous AgriLife Extension reports.
“Right now, producers are glad for the rain and cooler temperatures, but when you hear the long-term outlook is on the drier side, it’s something we have to keep in mind as we plan for next season’s crop,” Schnell said. “Good grain and commodity prices add to the optimism, but input costs are high as well, so it’s about having really good yields along with really good prices, and we need the weather to cooperate for that to happen.” — Texas A&M AgriLife Extension
