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Market sees mixed signals ahead of year-end

Anna Miller Fortozo, WLJ managing editor
Dec. 20, 2024 4 minutes read
Market sees mixed signals ahead of year-end

The market ended the week on a mixed note, with futures slipping from technical pressures and steady cash prices.

Live cattle futures saw losses over the week, down about $2 on the December contract to $190.35 and down about $4 to $186.55 on the February contract.

“(Traders) won’t likely find secure and stable confidence in the market’s fundamentals this week as the week’s lower dive is being technically driven,” wrote ShayLe Stewart, DTN livestock analyst, in her midday Thursday comments.

The Cattle Report said Thursday that the Federal Reserve’s recent decision to lower the fed funds rate by 0.25 points, along with signals of fewer cut rates next year, pressured futures lower despite continued strength in cash prices.

Cash trade through Thursday totaled about 32,000 head. Live steers sold from $191-196, and dressed steers sold from $303-307.

“This week, after four consecutive weeks of higher cash fed cattle prices and prices the highest in over four months, the momentum has slowed,” wrote Cassie Fish, market analyst, in The Beef on Wednesday. “Cash prices this week look to be about steady with last week, though most are still pricing cattle higher and less than 4k have traded.”

Cash trade through Dec. 15 totaled 77,128 head. Live steers averaged $194.21, and dressed steers averaged $303.94.  

Slaughter through Thursday totaled about 485,000 head, about 4,000 head short of a week earlier. Total slaughter for a week earlier is projected at 609,000 head. Actual slaughter for the week ending Dec. 7 was 614,183 head. The average steer dressed weight was 952 lbs., 2 lbs. below the prior week.

Boxed beef prices traded mostly steady over the week and closed mixed. The Choice cutout lost less than a dollar to close at $314.84, and the Select cutout gained about $5 to close at $285.55.

Cattle on Feed estimates for the report due Dec. 20 were on pace with last year for total numbers on feed. Placements were projected to be about 3% lower, and marketings were expected to be down 2%.

Feeder cattle

Feeder cattle futures were lower, down about $4 apiece to $254.47 on the January contract and $254.57 on the March contract.

The CME Feeder Cattle Index lost 84 cents to close at $262.23.

Corn futures traded mostly steady, with the March contract down 3 cents to $4.40 and the May contract down 8 cents to $4.46.

“The implications to re-establishing normal flows from Mexico is not a huge number but is enough to impact prices in a time of dwindling inventories,” said the Cattle Report of the halted cattle imports from Mexico. “Mexico crosses around 100,000 head a month to the U.S., and we are at the tail end of the largest volume seasonally.”

Colorado: Winter Livestock in La Junta sold 5,742 head on Tuesday. Compared to the previous auction, feeder steers under 600 lbs. sold $4-9 higher, with instances of sharply higher. Feeder steers over 600 lbs. sold $2-5 lower. Feeder heifers sold unevenly steady across all weight classes. Benchmark steers averaging 730 lbs. sold for $254-273.50, averaging $265.82.  

Missouri: Joplin Regional Stockyards in Carthage sold 7,500 head on Monday. Compared to the previous sale, feeder steers sold from $2 lower to $8 higher. Feeder heifers sold steady to $5 lower. Benchmark steers averaging 720 lbs. sold from $258-280, averaging $272.05.

Oklahoma: Oklahoma National Stockyards in Oklahoma City sold 7,500 head on Monday. Compared to the last sale, feeder steers sold $5-10 higher, and feeder heifers sold fully steady. Steer calves sold $8-10 higher, and heifer calves sold steady. Benchmark steers averaging 776 lbs. sold from $263-270, averaging $268.59.

South Dakota: Sioux Falls Regional in Worthing sold 5,565 head on Monday. Compared to the previous auction, steer calves under 700 lbs. sold $6-10 higher, 500-550 lbs. were $15-20 higher and over 700 lbs. were steady to $3 higher. Heifer calves sold steady to $5 higher, with instances of $10 higher on 450-500 lbs. Yearling feeder steers sold $5-10 higher, while yearling heifers were not well compared. Benchmark steers averaging 713 lbs. sold for $270-289, averaging $284.78. — Anna Miller, WLJ managing editor

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