It’s been a fun start to the 2026 bull sale season across the northern region. Record warm temperatures for January and February have made for some great conditions to winter cattle across the region. A lot of producers are enjoying still having cows out on pasture and are facing the unusual problem of fighting mud in February instead of snow drifting and cold. I know we could all use a heavy shot of moisture across the region, but there is still a lot of spring left to come. In my role of traveling this territory, I am enjoying the clear roads while they last. I know things can change quickly in this country.
After such a strong run in the fall bull sales, I know there was some uncertainty from bull buyers and sellers alike about what the bull market was going to do. We saw that there was a slight dip in the cattle market this fall, but this market has rallied back and rewarded these producers that put in the effort to background their cattle this spring with record prices. Everyone was wondering if the money would run out, if the buyers were being so aggressive coming after these bulls for tax reasons. We all know a rancher would rather spend money on anything other than give it to Uncle Sam. So far, however, it’s been clear that the producers across the region are continuing to reinvest into their cow herds.
Finishing up a jam-packed first three weeks of the bull sale season, we have marketed 1,752 bulls at Western Livestock Journal, representing sales in the northern region. Bulls have been averaging $13,196 across all breeds. Most sales have seen an increase in the average price of around $2,000-2,500 from last year. Demand for the commercial replacement females in these production sale settings has been outstanding, with open heifers ranging mostly in the $3,100-4,000 range and the limited supply of commercial bred heifers touching on that $5,000 mark.
That sticker shock of bulls averaging $13,196 may not be figures producers are used to paying, but the real question is whether these bulls are too high. If we use the old saying of “five steer calves pay for your bull,” that means with these prices, the steer calves must have averaged $2,639. Watching the cattle market this fall and spring, I think it would be a safe assumption that a lot of producers outdid those figures on their steer calves.
The USDA cow inventory report came out recently, showing once again, a record low cow herd. Although there are some signs of a slight rebuilding, it’s still showing that we are not rebuilding at a pace to get the national herd number back to where it was before. We continue to see land go out of production; I don’t think we will see the herd build back to where it was.
With all these factors signaling a strong market in the future, I think there’s a pretty good argument for the prices on these bulls. Let’s put a pencil on it even further. For simplicity’s sake, let’s say a bull covers 25 cows a year, that bull lasts four years in production and he will sire 100 calves in his lifetime. Even if we think that some of the steam will come off this market over the next few years and the average price of calves in his calf crop over his life drops to around $2,300 dollars a head, that bull will produce $230,000 in progeny in his lifetime.
If you are keeping replacement heifers at a rate of 20% out of this bull, with this year’s figures on these top-end open replacements bringing over $3,000, you are putting over $60,000 worth of replacements back into the herd over that bull’s productive cycle. This isn’t even taking into account what his daughters will do over their lifetime and revenue that will be generated or lost from them.
I know in the current world that we live in, everything is more expensive, from equipment to every other input in everyone’s operations. Margins are still tight even with these record cattle prices. So far, this bull buying season has been exciting to see the producers across the northern region aggressively investing in genetics that will hopefully lead to continued profitability in their operations.
