It’s time for the fall run of calves, but Oklahoma auction volumes suggest that feeder cattle supplies are limited.
Figure 1 shows that weekly auction volumes have been below year-ago levels with only one week in the last 12 weeks higher year over year. The total auction volume since July 1 is down 23.2% year over year, a decrease of about 78,000 head.
The summer market drop and high temperatures might explain reduced volumes in July, August and September, but that would imply that delayed marketings should be pushed into fall. Thus far in October, auction volumes have not indicated a strong fall run. This is perhaps more surprising given poor forage conditions due to continuing drought. The most recent pasture and range conditions for Oklahoma showed 51% in poor to very poor condition. Perhaps larger auction runs are coming yet this fall … or maybe the cattle just aren’t there.
Feeder cattle prices generally reached a low in early September and have mounted a slow and somewhat ragged recovery since then (Figure 2).
Feeder prices are up roughly 5.5-6% since Labor Day. Lightweight calf prices, which typically decrease seasonally into October, are up this year. The price of 450-pound steers (M/L #1) in Oklahoma (preferred for wheat grazing) is up 6.3% in the last five weeks. Demand for wheat pasture calves sometimes causes stocker prices to increase counter-seasonally, but stocker demand has been limited thus far. Wheat planting is well behind the normal pace because of dry conditions, but some recent moisture and expectations for more rain may spur both wheat planting and wheat stocker demand.
Stocker and feeder prices may continue to recover in the fourth quarter with limited supplies and strong demand supporting prices. — Derrell S. Peel, Oklahoma State University Extension livestock marketing specialist
