As of Sept. 15, USDA reported that 6% of Oklahoma winter wheat was planted, compared to 10% in the five-year average. Dry conditions have continued to delay wheat planting. However, large swaths of the western two-thirds of Oklahoma received some rain in the past few days, supporting more wheat planting. Wheat pasture prospects are delayed, but still possible if planting is completed relatively soon.
The September USDA Cattle on Feed report showed that August placements were 98.6% of last year and marketings were 96.4% of one year ago. There was one less business day this August, so daily average marketings were actually up fractionally from last year. The Sept. 1 on-feed total was 11.2 million head, 100.6% of one year ago. The report was well anticipated and should not cause a market reaction.
Feedlots have maintained inventories slightly higher in the first nine months of 2024, up an average of 0.6% compared to one year ago. However, total feedlot placements in the January to August period were down 1.9% year over year. The feedlot industry continues to find ways to hold inventory levels despite an ever-smaller feeder cattle supply. Continued heifer feeding is one key to that but increased days on feed is most important this year.
The most recent monthly data from the Kansas Focus on Feedlots summary shows average days on feed for steers at 204 days and the current 12-month moving average continues to inch higher at 194 days. Increased days on feed means a slower feedlot turnover rate and helps feedlot maintain the inventory level despite a reduced throughput—feedlot marketings are down 1% year over year thus far in 2024.
Steer and heifer carcass weights continue to advance sharply this year. Current weekly steer carcass weights are 941 pounds, up 24 lbs. year over year. Steer carcass weight shave averaged 23 lbs. heavier for the year to date. Heifer carcasses are currently 846 lbs., up 21 lbs. from one year ago, with a year-to-date average of 19 lbs. above last year. Simultaneously, steer slaughter is down a scant 0.3% year over year, while heifer slaughter is down 2.3% for the year to date.
Total fed slaughter is down 1.1% in the first 36 weeks of the year, a smaller decrease than previously expected. Higher-than-expected fed slaughter and sharply higher fed carcass weights put total fed beef production higher by 1.4% year over year. This is offset by a 12.9% year-over-year decrease in nonfed beef production resulting in a 1.1% year-to-date decrease in total beef production. Unexpectedly large fed beef production has changed expectations for annual beef production from earlier forecasts of a 4-5% year-over-year decrease to current estimates of a 1% decrease in total beef production. — Derrell S. Peel, Oklahoma State University Extension livestock marketing specialist
