The USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) and Foreign Agricultural Service released their outlook on beef production, exports and imports for the protein sector in May. The ERS is forecasting in 2022 beef production will decrease 2 percent due to a decrease in cattle supplies as drought conditions increase the slaughter rate this year.
Due to the increase in slaughter, the ERS raised 2021 beef production by 260 million pounds to 27.9 billion pounds. Poor pasture conditions and higher feed costs will increase the placements in feedlots and may result in lower year-over-year placements in 2022. Further, if conditions do not improve as the year progresses, the pace of slaughter for breeding stock is likely to increase in 2021, lowering expectations for the beef cow inventory on Jan. 1, 2022.
The ERS stated the increase in cattle placements and marketings this year would lead to lower beef production in 2022 to 27.3 billion pounds and tighter cattle supplies in 2022 are expected to lift prices 5 percent to $122/cwt.
The 2021 forecast for beef imports is 2.961 billion pounds and 2022 imports are forecast at 2.950 billion pounds. The ERS forecasted livestock, poultry, and dairy imports for 2021 to raise $300 million to $18.6 billion. Estimates for beef and dairy imports are unchanged.
Cattle imports are forecast $100 million higher to $1.7 billion on higher unit values. The ERS forecasted beef exports to increase $200 million to $7.6 billion on higher unit values and volumes, primarily to China and South Korea. The forecast for 2021 beef exports is 3.227 billion pounds, and exports in 2022 are forecast at 3.225 billion pounds. — WLJ
