A new report by researchers at the University of Kentucky (UK) shows that sales for plant-based meat alternatives (PBMAs) have doubled since the pandemic, but not at a rate that would slow the current demand for beef.
“We were surprised by the results,” said Shuoli Zhao, a professor of agricultural economics at UK and the study’s lead author. “Those products are usually marketed as a competitor of red meat.”
The study, published in the journal Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, indicates that consumers often purchase PBMAs alongside beef and pork. Instead of being a substitute for beef, they used PBMAs as a substitute for chicken, turkey and fish.
According to the study, most PBMA purchases are impulse buys rather than planned ahead of time, which might explain why consumers are buying the products they are hoping to replace.
“Consumers may go out—they are still the traditional meat lovers—but they may give plant-based meat alternatives a try. So, at the end of the day, they buy both,” said Yuqing Zheng, professor of agricultural economics at UK and a co-author of the study.
The researchers analyzed Nielsen sales data collected from grocery and convenience stores across the U.S. from 2017 through 2020, and they found PBMA sales were just a fraction of meat sales compared to beef, with 46 percent of fresh meat sales, followed by chicken at 23 percent.
“The demand is not currently there yet for plant-based meat alternatives to replace a portion of beef sales,” said Zhao.
The report also looked at the price elasticity of PBMAs and found that every 1 percent decrease in the price leads to a 1.5 percent increase in demand. Conversely, a 1 percent decrease in the price of beef leads to a 1.4 percent decrease in demand for PBMAs. The same decrease in the price of chicken leads to a 2.3 percent increase in demand for PBMAs.
Due to their high processing, PBMAs often cost more than many other meat options and are currently priced similar to beef. The researchers also found that consumers were more likely to try PBMAs if they were on sale.
“The plant-based meat alternative industry is a new industry that is still evolving and currently not at a consumer-friendly level due to the high prices,” Zhao said.
The report concluded that while PBMAs are designed to mimic beef and be marketed as ground beef or burger patties, “These PBMA products are not in a position to become a substitute for beef products.”
The researchers recently received a nearly $650,000 grant from the USDA’s National Institute of Food and Agriculture to further investigate PBMAs, including the consumer base, market, supply chain and any potential challenges the PBMA industry faces. — Charles Wallace, WLJ editor
