Bull sale season is officially in full swing in the western part of the country. For Seth Scribner, manager of Centennial Livestock at the Tejon Ranch in Bakersfield, CA, the decision to purchase a particular bull depends on one of two strategies: volume buying or limit buying. Each strategy is ultimately rooted in reviewing catalog information ahead of time and then viewing bulls in the pens on sale day.
When volume or limit buying, Seth will analyze EPDs, genomics and actual measurements to highlight a bull’s positive and negative traits, then select his bulls of interest, he told WLJ. Once he is at a sale, he will walk through the pens and look at the bulls he identified in the catalog to assess their phenotype and foot quality.
“We start by thinking of the average bull, then ask ourselves, ‘Is he above average or below average?’ We don’t get too hung up on a good bull as to ‘why.’ We just know we like him, but if he’s below average, we are sure to note why in our catalogs.”
When volume buying, price point becomes the final piece in determining which bulls to purchase. By establishing a target average price for the sale and/or season, Seth will determine ringside where a particular bull falls within his bid range.
For example, a targeted average of $4,500 per bull would mean bidding the more desirable bulls up to $6,500, knowing that he can average back later in the sale order with bulls that might cost $3,500.
In contrast, when limit buying, Seth said sale order and preference come more into play. “Your first choice bull may not be the first to sell, and you have to make some hard decisions with the sale order,” Seth said.
“So, do you buy your second or third choice bull if they come into the ring early, or do you wait for later in the sale order and hope no one else is locked on to your first choice bull? There is always the chance you’ll get blown out of the water and will be second-guessing yourself and saying, ‘Well, I should have bought the first one.’”
Limit buyers tend to focus on a limited number of bulls; maybe a buyer needs two bulls and has identified six or seven bulls between the catalog and pens that will work. In such a scenario, you tend to bid on each of your preferred bulls until you either get a bull bought or the bid goes beyond your max budget, Seth said. This is a very different strategy than volume buying, where the price range established ringside is the final factor as to whether or not a buyer will bid.
“If we like the bull on paper and we like him in the pen, then we ask ourselves, ‘Is this price point suitable for the value?’” Seth said. “Then we think of it as a game of averages for the value, knowing we can average back later in the sale or even at another sale.”
In either case, it is difficult to bid against another limit buyer who is focused on the same bull, and it will ultimately come down to who has the higher budget in mind.
“We have all been there, especially on a calving ease bull where you get completely outbid on a bull you’ve been eyeing,” Seth remarked. Most buyers have no trouble picking the best bulls of the sale, and the challenge lies in identifying the best quality for your budget.
“Is a flush mate or paternal sibling really that inferior because his EPDs are a few percentage points back? After all, most genetically enhanced EPDs only carry an accuracy value of 0.4,” he said.
After three consecutive drought years, many producers in his area have liquidated cows and will not need nearly as many bulls as when times were good, Seth said.
The strong cull cattle market over the past six months made it easy for him to justify selling an older bull before his last breeding season, especially when he may need $400/ton hay. This higher-than-normal salvage value coupled with money saved on feed during the off-season gives producers an advantage to buy back a replacement bull with better genetics closer to bull turnout, Seth said.
From both a local perspective as the president of the San Luis Obispo County Cattlemen’s Association and on a statewide level as the Marketing Committee chair for the California Cattlemen’s Association, Seth acknowledges it can be difficult for producers to make the connection between marketing their calves and the amount they’re willing to spend on bulls.
For each producer, the decision is different. “If you’ve got great cow genetics, it takes a fairly well-numbered bull to not go backwards, as opposed to a group of sale yard cows, where an average bull can make great strides,” Seth said.
“Plus, if you haven’t been to a bull sale in a while, the numbers are intimidating. It is not uncommon to have 25-30 different numbers per bull to represent their EPDs, genomic percentile rankings and actual data, such as scrotal circumference or adjusted 205-day weight.”
To simplify things, Seth suggests having one or two emphases, such as improving the carcass merit of your calves, as a foundation and then slowly expanding your awareness to the other traits offered. Keep in mind that too much of anything will likely mean a sacrifice elsewhere, and single trait selection can get you into trouble, he added.
For some points of advice for buying your next bull, Seth recommends a good rule of thumb to follow is a bull is worth five steer calves and to use a breeding ratio of 1:20 to 1:24, depending on terrain. The hope is to use a bull for five breeding seasons, but the reality is more like three to four seasons because of fallout.
He admits it can be intimidating to review all of the data and hard to narrow your bull selection when there are so many to choose from. He said he will often help out a fellow bull sale attendee if they ask for some advice on finding the right bull for their operation or how to review EPDs and genomic data.
“I feel like some people almost avoid going to bull sales simply because they feel intimidated,” he said.
While buying your next bull may be intimidating, look no further than the stands for a helping hand. — Anna Miller, WLJ managing editor
