For Glynn Tonsor, understanding the cattle market starts with a simple premise: producers cannot control the market, but they can understand it. As a professor at Kansas State (K-State) University and a leading voice behind the Meat Demand Monitor, Glynn has built his career helping cattlemen interpret demand, consumer behavior and price signals to support better decision-making on the ranch.
Missouri roots
Glynn grew up on a hog farm in northeast Missouri near Hannibal, where daily chores included pressure washing barns and caring for livestock in a farrow-to-finish system.
In the late 1990s, the hog market collapsed. Prices fell so sharply that hogs briefly had no value, forcing producers across the country to make difficult decisions. Glynn’s family was no different.
“In high school, my dad had to sell the breeding stock as part of a market response to keep the farm,” Glynn told WLJ. “There was a week where hogs were zero,” he recalled.
Watching his father and grandfather navigate that downturn shaped how he thinks about agriculture today.
“I saw how hard they worked, and I saw what markets can do,” Glynn said. “That will shape a person.”
That moment formed his outlook. By the time he graduated high school, he knew he wanted to stay connected to agriculture, but in a different way.
Glynn attended Missouri State University, which was then Southwest Missouri State University, working manual labor jobs, including roofing, to pay his way through school. As a first-generation college student, he stayed close to home financially, but his academic focus gradually narrowed toward agriculture and economics.
Glynn’s academic path eventually led him to K-State in 2002, where he pursued a Ph.D. in agricultural economics. A major reason for that move was the opportunity to work with economist Ted Schroeder, who became both a mentor and a collaborator.
“About 90% of the reason I came here was to work with him,” Glynn said.
While his background was in hog production, Kansas steered his work toward cattle. The state’s industry structure—dominated by beef production and feeder cattle—offered a different set of opportunities.
“There’s a much larger presence of cattle here,” he said. “And the feeder cattle side, especially, has always interested me.”
The structure of the cattle industry offered a unique opportunity. Compared to pork and poultry, which are more vertically integrated, the cattle sector still includes a large number of independent producers making relatively few but significant marketing decisions each year.
“You’ve got a lot of producers who may only sell cattle once or twice a year,” Glynn said. “Understanding those marketing decisions matters.”
Glynn saw that as a gap worth addressing.
Building the Meat Demand Monitor
Glynn’s most widely recognized contribution is the Meat Demand Monitor, launched in 2019 to address a critical information gap in the industry.
He explained that traditional data sources, such as USDA reports, provide broad, aggregated metrics, such as total consumption and average prices. While valuable, they lack the granularity needed for targeted marketing and product decisions.
Glynn identified a particularly important gap in food service. Prior to the pandemic, a growing share of food dollars was spent away from home, yet the industry had far less insight into restaurant demand than into retail grocery purchases.
The Meat Demand Monitor was built to close that gap by digging deeper into consumer behavior. It gives a clearer picture of preferences, habits and attitudes, and whether people are shopping at the grocery store or eating out. Instead of just looking at total beef consumption, it helps the industry understand what people are choosing, when they’re choosing it and how sensitive they are to price.
“It helps dissect the aggregate story,” Glynn said, noting that while broad trends often align across data sources, the details matter when making decisions.
Demand, protein and GLP-1
A key theme in Glynn’s work is the distinction between consumption and demand. While consumption measures how much beef is eaten, demand reflects both volume and price—essentially the value consumers place on the product.
That distinction is especially important today. Beef consumption per capita has remained relatively steady over time, but demand has increased significantly, supporting higher prices.
“The beef industry is benefiting from demand growth, not just consumption,” Glynn said.
One of the biggest drivers behind that demand is the broader shift toward protein-focused diets. Glynn said consumers are increasingly prioritizing protein across a wide range of products, from traditional meals to snack foods and beverages.
He continued that beef benefits from that trend, but it is not the only protein source competing for those dollars. According to his research, what sets beef apart is taste. Data from the Meat Demand Monitor consistently shows taste as the top factor influencing purchasing decisions, often ranking above price.
At the same time, emerging trends, such as GLP-1 medications, are adding new complexity to consumer behavior.
“We’re seeing about 12 to 14% of U.S. adults using GLP-1s,” Glynn said.
While these drugs reduce overall calorie intake, they do not necessarily reduce protein consumption. In many cases, users prioritize protein even more, shifting their diets toward nutrient-dense foods.
Glynn said that the long-term effects remain uncertain. Adoption rates, insurance coverage and evolving product options could all influence how widespread these changes become. But within the current environment, Glynn continued, GLP-1 use appears to reinforce, rather than undermine, the broader protein trend.
Challenges and opportunities
Glynn sees strong consumer demand as the industry’s greatest opportunity, but he also points to several challenges that could shape the years ahead.
At the top of the list is production risk, particularly weather. Drought remains a persistent concern across many cattle-producing regions, affecting forage availability, water supplies and ultimately herd size.
“That’s something we can’t control, but we have to manage around,” Glynn said.
At the same time, limited cattle supplies are creating pressure across the supply chain. Glynn said that while high prices benefit cow-calf producers, they can create challenges for feeders and processors facing tight margins and underutilized capacity.
Efficiency gains also present a double-edged sword. The industry is producing more beef per cow than ever before, reducing the number of animals needed to meet demand.
“The fact that we can produce more with fewer cows is a success story,” Glynn said. “But it also changes how the industry looks going forward.”
For Glynn, today’s strong cattle prices and demand are not an accident. They are the result of decades of improvement across the beef industry, from genetics to production practices to product quality.
“The value consumers place on beef today is the result of long-term industry adjustments,” he said.
Glynn said maintaining demand will require continued focus on quality and consumer preferences. Competing proteins, economic pressures and changing dietary trends all have the potential to influence future demand.
Glynn’s role in the industry is rooted in helping producers navigate these complexities with clear, analytical insights.
“I try to be a data-driven, documented truth teller,” he said.
That approach is not always easy, particularly when market conditions are challenging, but it reflects his belief that informed decisions lead to better outcomes.
“If I’m helping producers make better decisions, I’m doing my job,” Glynn said. — Charles Wallace, WLJ contributing editor
