As the global beef industry navigates shifting economic conditions, trade policies and consumer habits, production dynamics across key beef-producing nations continue to evolve.
According to the latest RaboResearch Global Beef Quarterly Q1 2025 report, South American producers are increasingly prioritizing exports over domestic consumption, while North American markets grapple with rising prices and tightening supplies.
North America continues to experience rising cattle prices due to tight inventory levels and strong demand. U.S. producers also face uncertainty regarding trade policies with Canada and Mexico, which could disrupt supply chains. In South America, production in Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay and Paraguay is expected to decline, but exports remain strong, primarily fueled by China’s increasing demand for beef.
“We expect Brazil, which accounts for 63% of South America’s supply, to reduce its production by 500,000 metric tons (mt) this year,” said Angus Gidley-Baird, senior analyst of animal protein for RaboResearch.
South America
Despite beef’s historically significant role in South American diets, Rabo said economic pressures and rising prices have shifted consumer behavior.
“Between 2020 and 2024, the volume of beef that could be purchased on the basic wage dropped across all countries,” Rabo reports, with Brazil seeing a 20% reduction in the amount of beef an average consumer can afford. The growing availability of alternative proteins, such as poultry and pork, has further contributed to declining per capita beef consumption.
“We believe this trend will continue in the coming years, making more beef available for the export market,” said Gidley-Baird. “Poultry is already the largest consumed protein in Brazil, Paraguay and Argentina. But other proteins such as pork and seafood have smaller shares of the diet than in other markets and therefore in our view have the capacity to increase.”
In response to these pressures, many South American processors have prioritized exports over local markets.
According to Rabo, Brazil remains the largest supplier to China, accounting for 46% of its total imports. Production is forecast to drop as the country retains more females to rebuild its herd. Argentina’s production remains stable despite a high rate of female slaughter, with exports serving as the most viable option for profitability. Argentina, the second-largest exporter in the region, shipped 595,000 mt of beef to China in 2024, representing 21% of the country’s total beef imports.
Uruguay, facing high domestic cattle prices, has increased imports from neighboring nations while seeing declining shipments to China and rising exports to the U.S. Paraguay has also seen export growth, with a notable increase in shipments to the U.S., jumping from just 75 mt in 2023 to 28,000 mt in 2024.
North America
In the U.S., shrinking cattle inventories are leading to record-high prices, a trend that began in late 2024 and has continued into 2025. “Historically strong demand is supporting record-high cattle prices to start the year,” Rabo noted.
USDA reported a total cattle and calf inventory at 86.7 million head as of Jan. 1, reflecting a nearly 8 million head decline since the 2019 cycle peak. While cow slaughter rates are expected to slow, producers remain cautious about herd expansion due to lingering drought effects and feed costs. The U.S. beef cow herd is now at its lowest level in years, which could maintain high prices for the foreseeable future.
Rabo noted that trade with Mexico and Canada adds further complexity. The recent postponement of proposed tariffs on Mexican and Canadian imports has temporarily eased market concerns, but Rabo warns that potential trade disruptions “could spill over into global trade impacts,” especially given the interdependence of North American beef markets. At the same time, U.S. domestic consumer demand remains strong, with boxed beef cutout values reaching their highest levels since mid-2023.
Canada continues to rely heavily on the U.S. market, sending approximately 780,000 head of cattle and nearly 40% of its total beef production south each year. Despite a relatively stable domestic market, the country is facing tightening cattle supplies, which has pushed prices higher. Canadian fed steer prices reached new highs in early 2025, with Alberta’s average price hitting CAD $276/cwt. Rabo warns that “any disruption in trade with the U.S. could have significant consequences for Canadian beef producers, given the deep integration of the two markets.”
On the other hand, Mexico is grappling with turmoil, with limited cattle supplies due to prolonged drought conditions and exports coming to a halt due to New World screwworm. Despite the domestic supply strain, Rabo said Mexico’s beef exports reached 237,000 mt in 2024, driven by strong demand and favorable exchange rates.
“Mexico’s beef exports have grown steadily, benefiting from increased buying power abroad,” Rabo notes. The report noted that feeder cattle prices have increased 17% from the previous year. However, Rabo noted producers are cautious about maintaining export levels while ensuring sufficient supply for local consumption.
Australia/New Zealand
Australia and New Zealand maintain strong production levels, with Australian cattle prices holding steady. Rabo reported Australia’s beef exports to China totaled 185,000 mt in 2024, reflecting a decline from previous years due to weaker Chinese demand, while exports to the U.S. surged by 60%, driven by strong demand for lean manufacturing beef.
New Zealand saw beef exports to China drop by 32% to 148,000 mt in 2024, but shipments to the U.S. increased by 2%, reaching 183,000 mt. Despite lower production volumes, Rabo said New Zealand experienced record farmgate returns, benefiting from higher prices and demand for premium beef cuts.
Both countries are expected to continue adjusting their trade strategies to navigate the evolving global market. — Charles Wallace, WLJ contributing editor
