I suppose all that praying for rain is paying off. I just wish we started earlier. One of our California readers sent me an email saying, “Your prayers have been answered.” California was in a 1,000-year drought, and now they are getting a 1,000-year rain—17 inches in two days in the northern part of the state.
The weather folks are saying that La Niña has ended, and we are in the El Niño pattern, when the Pacific cools down and starts dropping moisture on the West Coast. The “pineapple express” is in play, and they expect it to continue until Jan. 20 or so. The bad thing about this much rain in California is after their reservoirs are full—which will take a while—there are no other places to store water. They have not built additional water storage in 40 years, while their population has expanded to 40 million people. Lots of productive people are starting to leave the state because of their social policies and high taxes.
I feel a good spring coming on, and we all know that we are overdue for good spring rains. It looks like Mother Nature may give us another chance at managing excessive water. We need to continue conservation efforts, get crop and grass production back to normal and produce food. However, I would not bet on California doing a good job at water management.
Cattle markets were quiet this past week; packers are working at keeping their positive margins, with a $280 Choice cutout and cutting down on beef production. While on the other hand, cattle feeders are trying to force the markets higher. Futures markets are not providing any encouragement, so feeders are figuring that packers need cattle more than they do and are now in a waiting game.
There were some big runs of feeder cattle at auction markets last week; 17,500 head at Oklahoma City, OK, and 12,000 head at Joplin, MO. The southern Plains have not been receiving the moisture like the rest of the country and pastures remain dry. And I am sure some cattle sales were tax motivated; you always have to worry about Uncle Sam when money is concerned.
Bull sale season is in full swing and our WLJ field crew will be busy every day. I expect to see a favorable market. Last spring and summer, cull bulls were trading over $1 a pound and gave cattle owners a good reason to cull deep—real deep. It’s getting to the point where after a 90-day breeding season, those buggers become a liability. Many ranchers get the cows bred, then sell them all. Why have a big mean beast around that will tear up men and equipment? Figure out what your breeding costs are and buy the best bulls you think you can afford.
We met one family while setting up our Nebraska livestock tour—which is set for May 21-27 this year—who buys a new bull battery every year. They get their cows bred in a 60-day breeding season, then sell all those bulls to a man in Texas for fall breeding. And I know several folks who share bulls, and split them between spring- and fall-calving herds. Cattle owners are finding creative ways to reduce their walking bull breeding costs. Some have figured out how to use artificial insemination so they can use better bulls at less costs, which can also make heifer selection much easier.
It looks like R-CALF is revving up their engines to make another run on their issues, such as mandatory country-of-origin labeling (MCOOL)—which we had at one point, until the World Trade Organization found it to be an illegal trade practice. At the time, only about 35% of beef was required to be labeled. I would support the issue if they can find a way to treat everyone involved fairly. Canadian and Mexican cattle owners did not feel like our friends at the time.
They oppose mandatory electronic identification (EID), which will be imposed by USDA in lieu of bangs tags. If you send cattle out of state, then they will need the tag—and most cattle take several truck rides in their lifetime and cross state lines. Today, the cost seems irrelevant with $1,200 calves and $1,600 yearlings—a $3 tag would be good for inventory control.
I have never understood, over all these years, how R-CALF can be against mandatory EID and then support MCOOL—one does not go without the other. Buy, hey, this is what R-CALF has stood for over the last 25 years.
Let’s keep praying for rain; I can feel a good spring coming in my bones, but we need to ensure our prayers continue to be answered. — PETE CROW
