Total beef production thus far in 2024 is 10.6 billion pounds, down 2% year over year. This follows a 4.7% year-over-year reduction in beef production in 2023 from record levels in 2022. Cattle slaughter in the first 21 weeks of 2024 is down 4.5% year over year but cattle carcass weights have averaged 21.8 lbs. higher than last year thus far.
Beef production will be down year over year in 2024 but by less than previously forecast. There are also some interesting dynamics across types of beef production.
Steer slaughter is down 2.1% in the first 21 weeks of the year compared to one year ago. Heifer slaughter is down 1.6% year over year thus far in 2024. Total fed (steer plus heifer) slaughter is down 1.9% from last year.
However, steer carcass weights have averaged 920 lbs., up 20.4 lbs. this year and heifer carcasses are averaging 843 lbs., 15.9 lbs. heavier year over year. Carcass weights have not shown the typical seasonal decline in the first half of the year resulting in even greater year-over-year discrepancies in recent weeks.
Weekly data from late May shows steer carcass weights 37 lbs. heavier, and heifers 29 lbs. heavier, than last year. Total fed beef production for the year to date is 8.92 billion lbs., up 0.2% from one year ago. Increased steer and heifer carcass weights are offsetting decreased slaughter to result in a fractional increase in fed beef production for the year to date with significant increases in recent weeks (Figure 1).
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By contrast, nonfed beef production is down sharply in 2024. Nonfed beef makes up 20% of total beef production on average. Total cow slaughter is down 14.1% year over year through the first 21 weeks of the year, with dairy cow slaughter down 13.4% and beef cow slaughter down 14.8% from last year.
Cow carcass weights are averaging 646.8 lbs., up 10 lbs. over one year ago. Bull slaughter is down 7% year over year, with bull carcass weights up 28.7 lbs. year over year and averaging 892 lbs. Total nonfed slaughter through May is down 13.6% and total nonfed beef production is 1.69 billion lbs., down 12% compared to last year (Figure 2).
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Fed beef will likely decline in the second half of the year. Fed slaughter is expected to decrease more in late 2024, though carcass weights will likely remain elevated. Heifer retention may be starting which would lead to a larger decline in heifer slaughter by the end of the year. Beef cow slaughter may also drop more sharply in the last part of the year. Herd rebuilding typically results in decreased heifer and beef cow slaughter.
Moisture conditions through the summer and into the fall will be critical to determine if, and how much, herd rebuilding gets started and the impact on 2024 beef production. — Derrell S. Peel, Oklahoma State University Extension livestock marketing specialist
