We’re one third of the way there on USMCA! The trouble is, the path forward and how long it will take is uncertain.
On Wednesday, June 19, the Mexican government announced its Senate had passed the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) on a vote of 114-4. The same day, the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) confirmed Mexico had ratified the agreement.
“This is a very important advance,” said Mexican President Lуpez Obrador in a statement (translated from Spanish via Google Translate).
“Mexico is the first country to complete this process of approval of the treaty. Now it corresponds to Canada and the United States. It is a clear sign that there is unity in the country.”
USTR Robert Lighthizer similarly hailed the move in prepared statements.
“The USMCA is the strongest and most advanced trade agreement ever negotiated. It is good for the United States, Mexico, and Canada in a way that truly benefits our workers, farmers, and businesses. The USMCA’s ratification by Mexico is a crucial step forward, and I congratulate President Lуpez Obrador and the Mexican Senate on this historic achievement.”
So now what?
The USMCA—or T-MEC in Mexico or CUSMA in Canada—was signed by President Donald Trump, then-Mexican President Enrique Peсa Nieto, and Canada’s Prime Minister Justin Trudeau on Nov. 30, 2018.
“With our signatures today, we will formally declare the intention of our three countries to replace NAFTA with the USMCA a truly groundbreaking achievement. A modern-day agreement,” proclaimed Trump at the signing.
But the agreement still had to pass each country’s legislative branch. With Mexico’s Senate having passed it, passage now falls to the U.S. and Canada. When and how that might happen is in question, however.
Kent Bacus, director of international trade and market access for the National Cattlemen’s Beef Association, laid out the next steps for the U.S.
“We’re at that stage now where the Trump administration will have to submit the implementing language, which would come in a proposed bill. That would have to be sent to Congress. When that happens, that starts a 90-congressional-day clock. At the end of those 90 congressional days—not calendar days—if Congress has not ratified that legislation, then it fails.”
He clarified that members of Congress try to make sure the necessary votes exist before starting that proverbial clock, however.
“That’s why there’s a big advocacy effort underway from supporters from USMCA to try to really gain the momentum to take that forward.”
Though he said the timing on when a vote might happen is unclear, he described fall as ideal.
“That would allow enough time to make sure that all the votes are accounted for and that there aren’t any last-minute additions or changes to the bill that would basically negate support from a lot of people. Make sure there are no poison pill additions to USMCA.”
Bacus characterized a vote before the August congressional recess as unlikely, citing how big the USMCA is and how unfamiliar some members of Congress are with trade bills in general. Still, he expressed optimism.
“It seems there’s strong bipartisan support to try to find a path forward. I think they’re making progress.”
According to DTN’s Washington Insider, members of a House working group met with USTR Lighthizer on the afternoon of June 25 to discuss drug pricing provisions in the USMCA. Ways and Means Trade Chairman Earl Blumenauer (D-OR-03) reportedly said Congress should be able to ratify USMCA by the end of the year.
WLJ reached out to the Canadian Cattlemen’s Association regarding the next steps for Canada but had not received a response by press time. Canada will be having elections in late October of 2019, which could prove challenging to USMCA passage timelines. — Kerry Halladay, WLJ editor
