Another wave of pressure hit cattle futures over the past week, with analysts pointing to weakening confidence in the market.
Live cattle futures traded steadily lower. The December contract lost about $5 to close at $214.72, and the February contract lost about $3 to close at $215.40.
“Those that had hoped the break in CME cattle futures had run its course are sorely disappointed today,” wrote Cassie Fish, market analyst, in The Beef on Wednesday. “Market action is terrible. Some future contracts have made new lows for the move and can’t raise their head.”
There is no single explanation for the market’s action, Fish said, but the dramatic loss of confidence in the market isn’t helping. “After 5.5 years, the bull market appears to be over,” she said. “Much, but not all, of the historic third quarter rally has been erased as prices hurtle back to earth. The market reached levels never dreamed when 2025 began.”
In the last quarter of 2014, futures topped right before the tightest fed cattle supplies in modern history in 2015, Fish said. Although this cattle cycle is different than the last, this one will similarly see in 2026 the tightest fed cattle supplies of this cycle, intensified by the loss of Mexican feeder cattle imports.
Cash trade through Thursday totaled about 48,000 head. Live steers sold from $215-224, and dressed steers sold from $335-347.
Cash trade for the week ending Nov. 16 totaled 55,342 head. Live steers averaged $225.08, and dressed steers averaged $351.25.
“Reports of overfat cattle in the north are making the rounds,” Fish said. “Some cattle feeders are unable to get all cattle on the showlist sold week-to-week.”
Slaughter through Thursday totaled about 477,000 head, compared to 471,000 head a week earlier. Total slaughter for a week earlier is projected at 576,000 head. Actual slaughter for the week ending Nov. 8 was 568,948 head. The average steer dressed weight was 980 lbs.
Boxed beef prices were slightly lower over the week, down about $2 on the Choice cutout to $371.23 and also down about $2 on the Select cutout to $353.55.
“It’s been a disappointing selling season and is feeding fear that consumer beef demand has declined,” Fish said. “Because of the government shut down, there is a backlog of data, including retail beef data. So there is no way to gauge what’s happening at grocers. Anecdotal talk is that retail beef prices are higher than ever.”
Analysts expected cattle on feed numbers to be lower in the Cattle on Feed report set for release on Nov. 21. Pre-report estimates pegged cattle on feed as of Nov. 1 to be about 2% lower than last year, and placements and marketings about 8% lower.
Feeder cattle
“Buyers are evaluating the future marketing period for the lighter cattle and deciding if the markets continue downward for yearlings and fed cattle, the lighter cattle have the potential for large losses,” the Cattle Report wrote on Thursday.
Feeder cattle futures saw some small gains over the week. The November contract gained about $3 to close at $340.65, and the January contract gained about $2 to close at $316.37.
“Occupancy levels are falling in all regions, but especially in Texas,” the Cattle Report said. “The purchase of a 800-lb. steer on today’s market given today’s feed cost would result in a $250 loss if the animals were hedged. Some operators would prefer to look at an empty pen. Some bankers would agree.”
The CME Feeder Cattle Index lost $1.40 to close at $340.02.
Corn futures trended lower, down 15 cents on the December contract to $4.26 and down 18 cents on the March contract to $4.37.
Iowa: Russell Livestock in Russell sold 3,056 head on Monday. Compared to the last auction two weeks earlier, steers sold mostly $6-15 lower. Heifers sold mostly $2-11 lower. Benchmark steers averaging 729 lbs. sold from $324-374 and averaged $347.04.
Missouri: Joplin Regional Stockyard in Carthage sold 8,500 head on Monday. Compared to a week earlier, feeder steers sold from $4 higher to $6 lower. Feeder heifers sold from $5 higher to $5 lower. Benchmark steers averaging 765 lbs. sold from $341-358, averaging $347.01.
Oklahoma: Oklahoma National Stockyards in Oklahoma City sold 7,000 head on Monday. Compared to a week earlier, all classes of cattle sold unevenly steady, but demand was good. Benchmark steers averaging 777 lbs. sold from $334-349, averaging $345.41.
South Dakota: Sioux Falls Regional in Worthing sold 3,910 head on Monday. Compared to a week earlier, steer calves under 550 lbs. sold steady to $5 higher and over 550 lbs. sold $20-30 higher. Heifer calves sold $10-20 higher. Yearling feeder steers under 1,000 lbs. sold $20 lower and over 1,000 lbs. sold $2 lower. Yearling feeder heifers 750-900 lbs. sold from $5-10 lower and over 900 lbs. sold steady. Benchmark steers averaging 766 lbs. sold for $375. — Anna Miller Fortozo, WLJ managing editor
