Wednesday markets
Cattle futures finished the year on a high note, with quiet holiday trading.
“CME cattle futures are either back to their recent highs or eeking out new highs for the move today in continued light volume, holiday trading,” Cassie Fish, market analyst, wrote for The Beef. “February and April LC remain under the 100-day moving average, but the rest of the contracts have broken free of that resistance. There is a great deal of enthusiasm for a January fed cattle price rally, despite horrendous packer margins.”
Live cattle futures were higher, with the December contract up 82 cents to $232, the February contract $1.12 higher to $231.60 and the April contract up $1.22 to $232.20.
USDA did not publish the Afternoon National Slaughter Cattle report as of WLJ press time.
“This week’s negotiated fed cattle trade so far has been under 2,000 head. There was a little bit of cash trade in the south on the Fed Cattle Exchange this morning at $230.50,” Fish said.
Today’s slaughter is estimated to be 85,000 head, 42,000 head above the Christmas Eve harvest.
According to ShayLe Stewart, DTN livestock analyst, boxed beef prices at midday were lower, with the Choice cutout down 20 cents to $348 and the Select cutout 77 cents lower to $342.39.
Feeder cattle
Feeder cattle closed in the green, with the January contract 70 cents higher to close at $350.25 and the March contract up 75 cents to $345.32.
The CME Feeder Cattle Index was up 40 cents to $348.44.
Corn futures closed slightly lower, with the March and May contracts down a fraction to $4.40 and $4.48, respectively.
No auction markets due to the New Year’s holiday.
Fish said 2025 was a year of records, marked by record carcass weights, days on feed, retail and wholesale beef prices, and cattle prices across every class, along with record profits for producers, near-record packer losses, weak beef exports, record imports, and extreme market volatility driven by politics and parasites. Fish noted the market corrected about 17% after peaking at $246.77 in August, yet many participants are wagering on a return to those highs in 2026, placing cattle with break-evens near $240/cwt. Fish cautioned that 2026 is likely to bring as many surprises as 2025, with unprecedented capital at risk, making patience, discipline, and an open mind essential as the industry enters one of its most challenging periods. — Charles Wallace, WLJ contributing editor
