Tuesday markets
“CME cattle futures are taking no prisoners today,” Cassie Fish, market analyst, wrote for The Beef.
“Futures are making new lows for the move and have been unable to stage much of an intra-day rally,” Fish continued. “Most active April LC has taken out all key support, but the critical 2025 low made January 2 of $194.45. In two weeks, April LC has lost $12.77/cwt of its value.”
Live cattle futures closed lower, with the February contract down $2.20 to $199.67 and the April contract down $2.12 to $196.
Cash trade was moderate, with 2,510 head sold for $203.
On the formula side, 32,000 head averaging 923 lbs. sold for an average of $332.44.
The national weekly direct beef type price distribution for the week of Feb. 3-10 was the following on a live basis:
• Negotiated purchases: $207.19.
• Formula net purchases: $209.87.
• Forward contract net purchases: $198.12.
• Negotiated grid net purchases: $209.16.
On a dressed basis:
• Negotiated purchases: $327.27.
• Formula net purchases: $330.82.
• Forward contract net purchases: $303.73.
• Negotiated grid net purchases: $329.30.
Today’s slaughter is estimated to be 122,000 head, the same as a week earlier.
“The most important fundamental currently is the production cuts packers have been forced to make due to staggering red ink of over $100/head,” Fish wrote. “February is a tough month to sell beef in any year, so the kill cuts are in hope to soften the seasonal boxed beef decline, not prevent it. February is typically the smallest fed cattle slaughter month of the year anyway.”
Boxed beef prices were lower on 164 loads, with the Choice cutout down $1.04 to $322.46 and the Select cutout down $1.71 to $312.21.
According to ShayLe Stewart, a DTN livestock analyst, today’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report strongly supports the 2025 cattle and beef markets. Beef production for the year was increased by 775 million pounds due to historically high carcass weights, and allowing Mexican cattle imports to resume will further boost supply. Projected steer prices saw increases across all four quarters, with first-quarter steers expected to average $205 (up $11 from last month), second-quarter at $200 (up $6), third-quarter at $198 (up $2) and fourth-quarter at $200 (up $2). While 2025 beef imports remained unchanged at 4,770 million lbs., beef exports were raised by 200 million pounds to 2,795 million lbs., reflecting strong global demand.
Feeder cattle
Feeder cattle futures also closed lower, with the March contract down $3.35 to $264.77 and the April contract down $2.80 to $264.97.
The CME Feeder Cattle Index was up 17 cents to $275.76.
“Unfortunately, with the spot March contract currently trading below the market’s 40-day moving average, it’s difficult to tell how far the market will fall,” Stewart wrote. “Still, the market’s next support plane is substantially lower at $255.”
Corn futures were lower, with the March contract down 7 cents to $4.84 and the May contract down 6 cents to $4.98.
Nebraska: Tri-State Livestock in McCook sold 1,795 head on Monday. Compared to the last auction, steers over 700 lbs. sold $5-7 higher and 550-700 lbs. traded $5-10 lower. Heifers sold $5-15 lower, except 550 lbs. traded $9 higher. Benchmark steers averaging 769 lbs. sold for $266-286.50, averaging $283.63.
New Mexico: Roswell Livestock in Roswell sold 917 head on Monday. Compared to the previous auction, Steer calves 300-400 lbs. sold $2-10 higher, 400-450 lbs. were $8 lower, and 450-600 lbs. traded $1-9 higher, with instances of $13 higher. Feeder steers 600-650 lbs. sold $6 higher, and 650-700 lbs. sold $6 lower. Heifer calves 350-400 lbs. sold $3 lower, 450-500 lbs. were steady, while 500-650 lbs. heifers calves and feeders sold $4-11 higher. A group of steers averaging 718 lbs. sold for $270-280, averaging $273.27.
South Dakota: Sioux Falls Regional Cattle in Worthing sold 5,606 head on Monday. Compared to the last auction, feeder steers under 600 lbs. sold mostly steady, 600-800 lbs. were $5-10 lower, and over 800 lbs. traded steady to $2 lower. Feeder heifers under 700 lbs. sold $5-10 lower, and over 700 lbs. were steady to $5 lower. Benchmark steers averaging 722 lbs. sold for $282-305, averaging $297.16. — Charles Wallace, WLJ contributing editor
