This market feels like we’ve been climbing a mountain that we aren’t sure where the summit is. Each time we reach a peak, we find there is another just around the corner, but we’re so far up, we don’t know where we started from.
Over the past two weeks, the markets across the country have soared into new realms. Social media has been buzzing with new record highs across the country. In Turlock, CA, they posted new record highs in every single weight class from four-weights all the way through nine-weights. This trend is happening every day at nearly every sale barn and video sale. At the Northern Livestock Video Auction sale on Aug. 18, one major highlight was 780 unweaned steer calves weighing 405 pounds that brought $607.50/cwt.
As of this writing, Superior Livestock Auction was having their annual “Big Horn Classic” sale in Sheridan, WY. For perspective, this is normally a five-day event. This year, it’s two-and-a-half days long. When you step back and look at their marketings, cattle that were normally held for this sale were moved forward and sold in previous sales. Overall head count is slightly down, just like every other video company and sale barn, simply because overall herd numbers are down across the nation. For more perspective, Northern Video has seen the same trend. In June, they sold 181% more steers in 2025 than they did in 2024, according to preliminary data.
This is the trend right now. A lot of cattle moved forward, and without cattle imports across the southern border where they claim over 1 million head are waiting to enter, feeders are forced to lock in what they can. Reps across all the companies say they don’t see any cattle waiting to be marketed here domestically. One rep told me that this Superior Livestock sale will conclude his marketings for the year for the first time in his 20-year career. “I don’t even have any prospects to call on, the cattle just aren’t there,” he said. “The ones that are, are already sold.”
Derrell Peel of Oklahoma State University says, “The calculated feeder cattle supply this year is the smallest in available data for both the January and July Cattle reports. The tight feeder supply is the result of declining calf crops. Calf crops have declined the past seven years and are down 8.8% from the cyclical peak in 2018. The 2025 U.S. calf crop is the lowest since 1941. The beef cow herd is at a cyclical (maybe) and multi-decade low and is showing little sign of rebuilding. The closure of the Mexican border adds to the ever-tighter feeder cattle supply.
“The lingering question in the background continues to be that of heifer retention. With still no indication of significant heifer retention, the implication is that tight feeder supplies must get tighter yet in order to begin the process that will lead to eventual herd rebuilding. Herd rebuilding is slow to start and appears to be slow-paced at this time. This suggests that cattle prices will move higher and remain elevated for an extended period of time with a peak that is still in the future.”
The forward movement in the market is now being felt as retail beef prices soared by over 10% in July alone with the consumer not backing off at all. In some states, Choice beef surpassed the $9/lb. mark, showing nearly a 15% surge in price year over year.
This, coupled with deep red ink for the packers, is going to be the market resistance that we see. According to the Sterling Beef Profit Tracker, plant utilization is down 10% across the board. Operating expenses are feeling the pressure right now. Although carcass weights carried overall beef production in the U.S. to an actual increase of 2% in 2024, feeder cattle are going to see even bigger weights come in, especially with commodities at lower levels once again this year with bumper crops about to be harvested. In the past month, major media outlets have started to highlight beef prices. The spotlight is just starting and will most likely bring more attention to beef prices at the counter, which we all know is not a good thing to see. I do think the consumer is going to be much more cognizant of what they pay.
Most major analysts, including CattleFax, say $8.50-9.50/lb. is where the resistance will happen. Guess what, we’re there. Now, over the next quarter, we will see what signal the consumer sends as the grilling season comes to end and schools start back up. Lifestyle trends over the past several years are prioritizing proteins, especially beef. Positive acceptance for health, safety and quality has North American beef as a staple in most diets. Diets, like the dubbed “carnivore diet,” emphasize higher protein and fat intake with reduced carbohydrate consumption. Beef is king right now, but I do feel we are going to test our limits at the counter when we ask the consumer to absorb even higher prices. Generational differences show that millennials love protein sources and accounted for 62% of consumption last year. For now, we ride the highs and enjoy the moment if you have inventory to sell. — LOGAN IPSEN
