The dust is beginning to settle with the new appointments in the Trump administration. Hearings are happening every day, with new appointees being grilled by committees regarding their personal beliefs, political affiliations, views and even how many pushups they can do.
Nominated Agriculture Secretary and Texas native Brooke Rollins is going to have her work cut out for her. There’s an enormous number of factors that are circling right now that could really impact farmers, ranchers and consumers.
Let’s talk first about the consumer. Price checking my local grocery store, a dozen grade A eggs is now sitting between $6.99 and $9.99 depending on brand. The poultry industry has experienced an extremely turbulent stretch dating back to COVID. Before this, eggs maintained a relatively stable price point. Supply chain shortages, combined with new regulations for more “free-range” conditions, largely disrupted growing conditions and efficiencies. Lately, the major disease outbreak in H5N1, also known as the avian flu, has affected more than 100 million egg-laying hens, according to the USDA. That’s almost one-third of the national population affected in a very short amount of time.
This is one example that Secretary Rollins must immediately tackle. On top of this is the New World screwworm (NWS) detection in southern Mexico that halted imports of Mexican cattle into the U.S. The point is there are major outbreaks happening that are majorly disrupting supply chains that USDA will need to immediately address.
Tightening supplies of cattle has been the major headline for the better part of the last three years. Shortly after this column went to press, the much-anticipated Cattle inventory report was released. This report will help give some data points surrounding the national cow herd inventory. At this point, not much will surprise the industry.
It’s been a strong rally amid an already-favorable market for producers. National weekly slaughter has dipped slightly but has been offset by record-sized carcass weights. Simply put, demand on short supply has driven prices into records that only last minutes. This rally is going to cool down, but not in the immediate short term.
Another topic that needs to be brought to light is the circling discussion of immigration. Although it’s uncomfortable to talk about, it’s going to play a major role in agriculture. ICE has been making sweeping raids in several parts of the country. This is going to impact agriculture whether we like it or not.
Think about this from a farmer’s perspective who needs their crops worked with foreign labor. A new Labor secretary in Lori Chavez-DeRemer whose historical stances have been labor friendly. Cabinet nominees like border czar Tom Homan who maintains zero-tolerance policies and is making sweeping statements about mass deportation. A new USDA secretary whose stance isn’t as widely known in Rollins. Then throw President Donald Trump in this mix with his current immigration stance and tariff negotiations. There are some very interesting personalities and stances that we hope will come up with the best-case scenario for agriculture.
While I am in complete agreement that deportation of known criminals is a good thing for our country’s security, we must look at the impacts. The system has been broken for years, if not decades. The system needs to be fixed, not politicized for headlines and political gain. According to the National Agricultural Workers Survey, an estimated 44% of labor forces do not carry any or proper documentation. About 68% of workers are foreign born.
If policies were to threaten the labor force that currently keep agriculture’s input costs somewhat manageable—combined with a shortened supply of protein sources like meat, dairy and poultry, and the inability to get produce to shelves in a timely or cost-effective manner—consumers could face another major increase in grocery prices … again.
Other agencies that will be at the table include Department of Homeland Security Secretary and beef cattle rancher Kristi Noem. How Noem, Homan, Rollins, Chavez-DeRemer and Trump strategize to revamp a broken system will have lasting impacts on agriculture moving forward. The roster appears to have a very promising situation to create favorable outcomes for production agriculture.
This administration needs to ensure the safety and viability of our food sources and systems inside our borders. Secure borders should mean secure systems. Consumers have been repeatedly hit with inflationary pressures. These costs have been largely due to input costs skyrocketing. If this administration could do one thing for its populations, it’s to bring a commonsense approach to broken systems and deliver the opportunity for the producer and the consumer to both be able to eat. — LOGAN IPSEN
