Coming into the July 4 holiday, wholesale ground beef prices pushed to new record levels. Prices for 90% lean trimmings, which are the backbone of ground beef markets, have increased continually the past three years (Figure 1).
Decreased cow slaughter, down 5.8% year over year in 2023 and another 15.4% decrease in 2024, has been followed by a further 11.9% year-over-year decline in the first 23 weeks of 2025. This has resulted in a more than 18% drop in non-fed beef production from the cyclical peak in 2022 to 2024 and an additional decrease of 8.9% thus far in 2025. The 90% lean trimmings price the last week of June was $401.45/cwt., a record high and the first time 90s prices have exceeded $400/cwt.
Typical ground beef formulations use various combinations of lean and fatty trimmings to achieve desired ratios of lean to fat in hamburger. Not only have 90% trimmings continued to increase in price, but 50% trimmings have also jumped sharply in recent weeks due to declining fed beef production (Figure 2).
In the second quarter, fed steer and heifer slaughter decreased 6% year over year based on 11 weeks of data since the first of April. This has led to a 3.9% year-over-year decrease in fed beef production since April, with reduced supplies of 50% lean trimmings. By the last week of June, the price of 50% trimmings jumped to $236.03/cwt, the highest price ever except for two weeks during packing plant reductions during the pandemic in May of 2020.
Fed beef production dropped just 1.6% from the all-time high in 2022 to 2024 but the recent decrease in fed beef production is expected to continue through 2025 and 2026 at least.
A mix of 90% and 50% trimmings in a 7-to-1 ratio produces an 85% ground beef product. Using the end of June prices for 90s and 50s reported above results in a price of $380.77/cwt for a wholesale 85% lean combination, an all-time record high price.
Wholesale ground beef prices have continued to push higher despite increased imports of processing beef, which moderate declining domestic non-fed beef supplies. Ground beef prices will remain high for the foreseeable future as cull cow numbers will remain tight while the cattle industry transitions to herd rebuilding. — Derrell S. Peel, Oklahoma State University Extension livestock marketing specialist
