According to a new RaboResearch Food & Agribusiness report, global beef trade is poised for continued expansion through the end of the decade, fueled primarily by surging demand in Asia and export growth from South America.
Despite this momentum, the report underscores that volatility—driven by disease outbreaks, shifting geopolitics and tightening supplies—will remain a defining feature of the market.
The report said that the past five years have marked one of the most dynamic periods in global beef history. Between 2019 and 2024, worldwide beef exports grew 14%, reaching nearly 13 million metric tons (mmt).
“Brazil and China have emerged as dominant forces, with Brazil leading exports and China becoming the top importer,” said Angus Gidley-Baird, senior analyst for RaboResearch.
According to the report, Brazilian beef exports have surged from 2.3 mmt in 2019 to an estimated 3.6 mmt in 2024—doubling Australia’s export volume and representing roughly 50% of China’s total beef imports. China, meanwhile, imported over 3.5 mmt of beef in 2024, up from just over 2 mmt in 2019, solidifying its role as the world’s top buyer.
RaboResearch noted other South American nations have followed suit. Argentina and Paraguay have boosted exports by 11% and 40%, respectively, reflecting broader regional growth. Frozen beef products have led this expansion, increasing 20% to just under 7 mmt, while chilled beef exports rose 11% to 2.4 mmt.
Volatility
Even as volumes grow, volatility continues to define the global beef market. RaboResearch noted that “disease, geopolitics and economic conditions have created major disruptions,” contributing to what the report calls “persistent volatility.”
Economic uncertainty and geopolitical tension—especially tariffs, sanctions and shifting alliances—have further amplified market swings. Record-high cattle prices in both Australia and the U.S., combined with fluctuating consumer demand, have produced what RaboResearch calls “prices regularly reaching record highs and dropping to historic lows.”
The RaboResearch report identifies Asia as the engine of future trade expansion. “Highly populated regions with low per capita beef consumption and increasing wealth will drive the next wave of growth,” Gidley-Baird explained. Countries such as Vietnam, China, Malaysia and the Philippines are expected to continue increasing beef consumption through the decade.
Lacking sufficient domestic production, these nations will rely heavily on imports. South American exporters—particularly Brazil—are well-positioned to meet this demand through enhanced genetics, improved management practices and greater adoption of grain-feeding systems. Meanwhile, established exporters such as the U.S., Australia and New Zealand will focus on “value-driven growth,” leveraging premium product quality and established supply chains.
Beef production
While demand is set to rise, the report predicts a temporary decline in global beef production during the early 2030s, primarily driven by reductions in the U.S., Brazil and Europe.
“This lower volume of cattle and beef will support prices, shifting margins to the production end of the supply chain,” said Gidley-Baird.
However, RaboResearch noted the downturn is expected to be short-lived. Improved genetics, heavier carcass weights and expanded dairy-beef operations will bolster recovery.
“Even if livestock numbers do not return to previous levels, productivity gains will sustain higher output,” the report noted.
As production recovers, margins will likely shift again—this time toward buyers—reflecting the cyclical nature of the beef industry. Companies that build resilience through diversification and cross-protein strategies will be best equipped to weather these transitions.
A notable outcome of tightening supplies and robust export demand is the growing strain between domestic and international markets. RaboResearch highlighted how countries like Brazil have seen domestic consumption decline as high export prices redirect supply abroad. “Very strong demand from U.S. consumers has led to increased export volumes and higher prices in Australia, New Zealand, and Brazil,” the report noted.
This growing imbalance highlights a central theme of the RaboResearch report. While rising exports benefit producers and sustain the global supply chain, they can also strain local markets and consumers. The challenge ahead, the report noted, lies in balancing profitability with accessibility—ensuring that the gains of an expanding global beef trade do not come at the expense of domestic food security. — Charles Wallace, WLJ contributing editor
