The global beef industry is navigating a turbulent 2025, as rising prices, shrinking cattle supplies and geopolitical developments introduce mounting uncertainty. According to the Rabobank RaboResearch division’s Q2 2025 Global Beef Quarterly report, all major cattle markets have seen prices trend higher in the first half of the year. However, the resurgence of protectionist trade policies—particularly in the U.S.—threatens to reshape beef trade flows and increase volatility across key markets.
“With beef as one of the largest agricultural commodities traded by the United States, any change to US trading arrangements has the potential to affect the beef market at a national and, in turn, a global level,” said Angus Gidley-Baird, senior analyst for animal protein at RaboResearch.
While much of the recent media coverage has focused on tariffs, Gidley-Baird emphasized this may just be the start of broader structural changes.
“Tariffs have grabbed headlines, but the real story is the shifting landscape of global trade agreements,” he said. “In just a few months, more trade negotiations have been initiated than we’ve seen in decades.”
Despite the turmoil, RaboResearch maintains a cautiously optimistic stance for the remainder of 2025. “The fundamentals of supply and demand suggest that trade flows will persist,” Gidley-Baird said. “But should the U.S.-China relationship deteriorate further—or if Europe enters the fray—the global beef market could look very different by the end of the year.”
U.S. market
The U.S. cattle sector is facing challenges from trade disruptions, biosecurity threats and declining herd numbers. Following the U.S. imposition of tariffs on several beef-exporting nations in April, retaliatory measures and shifting trade flows followed. Compounding the challenge, the outbreak of New World screwworm in Mexico prompted a U.S. border closure on live cattle imports, further reducing supply.
According to Rabobank, cattle slaughter from January to April fell 5% year over year, led by a 14% drop in cow slaughter and a 2% decline in steer and heifer slaughter. Despite record-high carcass weights—steers averaged 949 pounds—total beef production dipped 1% to 8.8 billion lbs.
The report said strong consumer demand is helping offset supply concerns. The USDA Choice-Select cutout climbed to nearly $3.50/lb. this spring, over 50 cents above 2024, fueled by strong rib and loin sales. Retail beef prices are projected to average $8.45/lb. this year—the highest since 1986.
Producer sentiment is also rebounding, with prices reaching new records across all classes. Since February, 500-lb. steer prices rose 15% to $401/cwt, while fed steers hit $225/cwt. Rabobank expects prices to remain strong in the long term, despite possible seasonal fluctuations.
North America
According to Rabobank, Mexico’s cattle sector is under serious strain in 2025 due to the continued spread of New World screwworm and historically tight cattle inventories. Since the closure of the U.S. border, exports have plunged to around 200,000 head year to date, less than half of last year’s volume.
Feedlot operations are running at 20-35% below capacity amid feeder shortages, and national beef production declined by 1% in the first quarter. Rabobank noted that beef and cattle prices are climbing weekly, with carcass values up more than 20% year over year.
Canada, by contrast, has so far avoided the disease-related turmoil affecting its southern neighbor, but production remains under pressure. Rabobank reports that Canadian beef output in the first quarter was the lowest since 2019, down 9% from the previous year. Slaughter volumes fell by 8%, driven largely by fewer steer and heifer placements from the previous summer.
China looks elsewhere
China has so far avoided retaliatory tariffs in the current U.S. trade standoff.
“Reports are emerging that Chinese buyers are already shifting their attention to Australia, New Zealand, and South American suppliers as U.S. beef becomes more expensive,” the report said.
Australia’s beef sector is seeing strong growth in 2025, supported by favorable weather, herd recovery and steady trade relationships. Exports rose 15% in the first four months to 438,000 metric tons, with the U.S. leading as the top market—taking 30% of total exports and posting a 36% increase in volume.
China has moved into second place, overtaking Japan with 18% of total exports, up 28% year over year. Stable trade agreements and a favorable exchange rate have further boosted Australia’s position in key Asian markets.
New Zealand, by contrast, is expecting a 4% drop in beef production this year, largely due to limited domestic supply. However, strong U.S. demand is helping offset the decline. Conversely, exports to China have declined 31% year over year.
Brazil continues to deliver record-setting beef exports in 2025. From January to April, export volumes reached 941,000 metric tons and revenue hit $4.5 billion—up 13% and 23% year over year, respectively. China remains the top buyer, while U.S. purchases surged 161%, making it Brazil’s second-largest market. — Charles Wallace, WLJ contributing editor
