A shortened holiday week didn’t spare the market from pressure, as live and feeder futures posted notable losses. There was one less trading day this past week due to the federal Juneteenth holiday on Thursday.
Live cattle futures were down about $4 apiece on the June and August contracts on Wednesday. The June contract closed at $224.30, and the August contract closed at $211.67.
“The daily technical indicators have gone from overbought to moderately oversold,” wrote Cassie Fish, market analyst, in The Beef on Wednesday. “Begging the question, is the correction about complete?”
Cash trade through Thursday totaled about 42,000 head. Live steers sold from $231-238, and dressed steers sold from $375-380.
Cash trade through June 15 totaled 58,294 head. Live steers averaged $239.07, and dressed steers averaged $380.11.
“Can the packer roll cash fed cattle prices over and march prices lower over the third quarter of 2025?” Fish asked. “To do so, all packers, large and small need to own enough inventory over a long enough period of time to say, ‘we’re full’ and still find willing sellers. It’s been a long time since that were the case.”
Slaughter through Thursday was estimated at 451,000 head, compared to 456,000 head a week earlier. Total slaughter for a week earlier is projected at 558,000 head. An actual slaughter report for the week ending June 7 was not released Thursday due to the federal holiday.
“Chances are good that the weekly slaughter from this point forward will trend closer to 550,000 than 600,000 as packers attempt to deal with red ink,” the Cattle Report said on Thursday. “This week’s slaughter was almost 50,000 under last year.”
Boxed beef prices skyrocketed higher over the week. The Choice cutout gained about $27 to close at $393.79, and the Select cutout gained more than $11 to close at $374.59.
“It’s highly probable boxed beef prices will seasonally decline in Q3, likely bottoming in September,” Fish said. “Many expect cash prices to fall $15 to $20/cwt or more in Q3. Certainly carcass weights will be rising and fed cattle supplies should increase.”
The pre-report estimate for cattle on feed as of June 1, ahead of Friday’s Cattle on Feed report, was 98.4% of 2024 levels. Placements were expected at 90.4%, while marketings were projected at 90% of last year.
Feeder cattle
Feeder cattle futures also traded lower over the week. The August contract lost about $7 to close at $304.17, and the September contract also lost about $7 to close at $303.80 on Wednesday.
“Although the feeder cattle complex continues to see strong demand in the countryside, and thus far, the sales have been strong on the video auctions this week, the feeder cattle market continues to follow the live cattle contracts directly, not challenging their decisions whatsoever,” ShayLe Stewart, DTN livestock analyst, wrote on Wednesday.
The CME Feeder Cattle Index lost $3.58 to close at $311.04.
Corn futures traded mixed over the week. The July contract lost 5 cents to close at $4.33, and the September contract gained 3 cents to close at $4.29.
Missouri: Joplin Regional Stockyards in Carthage sold 7,000 head on Monday. Compared to a week earlier, feeder steers sold from $5 higher to $10 lower and feeder heifers sold steady to $5 lower. Benchmark steers averaging 768 lbs. sold from $310-320, averaging $315.46.
Oklahoma: Oklahoma National Stockyards in Oklahoma City sold 5,200 head on Monday. Compared to the previous sale, feeder steers sold steady to $3 lower and feeder heifers sold mostly steady. Steer and heifer calves sold $2-5 lower. Benchmark steers averaging 769 lbs. sold from $308.50-318, averaging $311.75.
South Dakota: Sioux Falls Regional in Worthing sold 6,632 head on Monday. Compared to the last auction two weeks earlier, feeder steers and heifers sold $7-10 higher. Benchmark steers averaging 735 lbs. sold for $332-357, averaging $343.51.
Texas: Lonestar Stockyards in Wildorado sold 767 head on Tuesday. There were not enough sales for an accurate comparison, but a steady-to-lower undertone was noted. Steer and heifer calves were weak to $6 lower on a light test. A group of steers averaging 695 lbs. sold for $315. — Anna Miller Fortozo, WLJ managing editor
