USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) forecasts inflation-adjusted U.S. net cash farm income (NCFI), defined as gross cash income minus cash expenses, will decrease by $16.3 billion (9.6%) to $154.1 billion in 2024.
This would come after an NCFI decrease of $52.9 billion (23.7%) in 2023 from an all-time high of $223.3 billion in 2022. U.S. net farm income (NFI) is forecast to decrease by $10.2 billion (6.8%) to $140.0 billion in 2024. This reduction follows a drop of $43.3 billion (22.4%) in NFI in 2023 from an all-time high of $193.5 billion in 2022 (after adjusting for inflation).
Net farm income is a broader measure of farm sector profitability that incorporates noncash items, including changes in inventories, economic depreciation and gross imputed rental income. Despite these declines, if forecasts are realized, NCFI and NFI would stay above their respective 200423 averages in 2024.
Underlying these forecasts, cash receipts for farm commodities are projected to fall by $23.3 billion (4.3%) to $516.5 billion in 2024, primarily because of lower crop receipts. However, a $16.2 billion (3.4%) reduction in production expenses is expected to moderate the overall decline. — USDA ERS
