Drought continues to linger in patches of the state, but Texas agricultural producers face much better cropping outlooks going into spring, according to Texas A&M AgriLife Extension Service experts.
AgriLife Extension agronomists Jourdan Bell, Ph.D.; Reagan Noland, Ph.D.; and Ronnie Schnell, Ph.D., agreed that soil moisture conditions have improved compared to last year. However, they are still concerned that cropping conditions could decline without additional timely moisture, especially in drier areas.
Around 97% of the state was experiencing some level of drought on Sept. 26, 2023, with around two-thirds of Texas mired in severe to exceptional drought, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. As of Jan. 16, that figure had dropped to 58% of the state experiencing levels of drought with about 13% experiencing severe to extreme drought and zero areas reporting exceptional drought.
Exceptional drought is indicative of significant widespread crop and pasture losses and emergency-level water shortages in reservoirs, streams and wells.
“Ask me in a week or so after these rain systems move through,” Bell said. “Our area is projected to get 1 inch, and that would be an ideal amount to get some dry-sown wheat up and to help established fields. But we’ll definitely need more to keep the positive trend going.”
Weather outlook
John Nielsen-Gammon, Ph.D., Texas state climatologist and Regents Professor in the Texas A&M Department of Atmospheric Sciences, said most of the state will receive a “good amount” of rain over the next week.
Nielsen-Gammon expects multiple storm systems could deliver drought ending moisture in areas like Central and East Texas that remain abnormally dry.
“About half the state has decent moisture, another 20% that is abnormally dry, so that leaves about one-third of the state, like Far West Texas, southern parts of the state and pockets in North and East Texas dealing with drought,” he said. “Drought in much of South Texas is related to long-term rain deficits, so for parts of the state these rains could be enough to knock that drought out, because there are a couple separate systems in the forecast. It’s just a matter of who catches conditions-altering amounts.”
The long-term outlook is not as promising, said Nielsen-Gammon. All six climate models, run by weather agencies like the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, show Texas will be drier than normal in late spring, which is the peak rainy season for most of the state.
“Having all six models forecasting the same outcome tells me there is a strong likelihood it plays out that way,” he said. “It doesn’t mean bone dry. It just means less rain than we receive during the months that rainfall typically peaks.”
Additionally, seasonal forecasts suggest summer weather patterns will be hotter and drier on average, he said.
Regional moisture varies greatly
Noland said soil moisture and winter forage conditions were “OK,” but that later-planted crops like sorghum and cotton will need additional moisture to establish. He expects producers in his region to begin planting corn seeds into decent moisture within the next six weeks but suspects more rainfall will be necessary to plant other warm-season crops.
“We’re in much better shape than at this point last year because of the late fall, early winter rains,” he said. “But it’s too soon to project too much about how conditions might be by mid- to late-spring.”
San Angelo received 6.1 inches of rainfall between Oct. 1-Dec. 31, 2023, compared to the 30-year average of 4.5 inches.
Some dryland winter wheat fields around San Angelo have recently shown signs of drought stress, but temperatures have been cool enough to slow moisture losses, he said. Last year, many wheat fields were “dusted in,” or planted into dry soil.
Many fields planted in that region from October-November 2022 failed to emerge or suffered a range of issues due to too little rainfall at the right time while others’ seeds remained dormant until rainfall led to germination in February. Late emergence was a setback for grain yield potential and significant setback for grazing potential.
Noland said there is some concern that the lack of heavy rainfall events to recharge regional aquifers could translate into lower irrigation capacity for crops this summer. But heavy rains in February filled aquifers to overflow last year.
Temperatures prior to recent freezes have been above normal, he said. Noland suspects some oats and other winter crops more susceptible to freeze were likely stung by recent temperatures in the low-20s and teens, but he said winter wheat should fare well.
“I guess the El Niño can get some credit for the warmer, wetter weather, but for growers it could swing either direction depending on the weather between now and planting,” he said.
More rain could change outlooks
Bell said the El Niño impact has been minimal in the Panhandle. Some areas have decent moisture, while others are very dry. She reported similar wheat conditions, including dry-sown fields that have yet to receive rainfall and fields that received enough moisture to germinate but then failed. Irrigated fields are variable. Irrigated wheat in the Northern Panhandle looked good, but in some areas the lack of sufficient irrigation capacity has limited winter forage production.
Much of the Panhandle received heavy rains last May with amounts ranging up to 20 inches, she said. Some areas received more than 11 inches in two hours as multiple storm systems moved through the region.
But while the flash rain events set rainfall records and created heavy runoff, Bell believes those events did not help the soil moisture profile like slower, steadier rainfall might have.
“By late August and September, a lot of our fields were dry,” she said. “The 100-plus degree days, and I just don’t think we received good subsoil moisture from previous heavy rains. We’ve received some rainfall and some snow since then, but it was very little, and we have not recorded any rainfall so far this calendar year.”
Schnell said moisture conditions in East Texas down to the coastal areas vary. Some areas in northeast and southwest parts of those regions have zero drought while central and southeastern areas are in abnormally dry to severe drought conditions, according to the drought monitor. Large swaths of Jasper, Newton and Sabine counties have moved from exceptional drought in September to extreme drought as of Jan. 16.
The forecasted rains could improve conditions in those regions, he said.
“The seven-day forecast suggests good chances of rain from Interstate 35 east and south, and hopefully those areas short on moisture can pick up some significant amounts,” he said. “That would make me a little more optimistic that things will be set up nicely for planting.”
Plan for the worst, hope for the best
Schnell said most Texas farmers should be optimistic at this point. Bell and Noland agree growers should be more optimistic than this time last year.
It would be ideal for soil moisture to improve going into planting, they said, adding they hope growers are able to take advantage of available moisture, plant as early as possible and manage their crops efficiently and effectively.
“Input prices have fallen somewhat, but so have market prices, so planning ahead to optimize fertility and control weed and insect pests to give the crop the best chance possible for yield,” Schnell said. “Last year was very dry, but areas of South and Central Texas had the best corn in years. Sometimes that drier pattern, if we get timely rains, it can change an outlook quickly.” — Texas A&M AgriLife Extension
