Strong seasonal demand and recent decreases in beef production have pushed beef prices sharply higher recently. The last week of May, Choice boxed beef price was $364.92/ cwt, up 16.5% year over year and up 7.7% in just the last seven weeks (Figure 1). Cutout values typically increase to a seasonal peak in May, but the increase this year has been more pronounced than usual owing to generally strong beef demand and recently declining beef production. The increase in boxed beef cutout values from March to May has been roughly twice the normal seasonal increase over this period.
Slaughter and beef production have begun to decrease, with total beef production down for the last seven consecutive weeks for a total decrease of 4.4% year over year. The big change is fed beef production, which was higher in 2024 and is still 1.2% higher year over year for the year to date, but down six of the past seven weeks for a total decrease of 3.3% compared to the same period one year ago.
In the last seven weeks, total fed (steer plus heifer) slaughter is down 5.6% with steer slaughter down 5.5% and heifer slaughter down 5.8% year over year. This contrasts with 2024 when steer slaughter was up 0.4% and heifer slaughter was down a scant 0.3% year over year, leading to total fed slaughter up 0.3% for the year.
Nonfed beef production continues the decline of the past two years. In the first 19 weeks of 2025, nonfed beef production is down 9.7% year over year, following a decrease of 12.7% last year. Thus far in the year, total cow slaughter is down 12.8% with dairy cow slaughter down 8.4% and beef cow slaughter down 17%.
The decrease in nonfed beef production is reflected in the trimmings market. The current price of 90% lean trimmings is $383.41/ cwt, up 8.3% over last year. The recent decrease in fed slaughter has also pushed prices for 50% lean trimmings sharply higher, with the latest weekly price at $126.91/cwt, up 67.1% year over year.
A 5-to-1 ratio of 90s to 50s—which produces an 83.3% blend—is currently valued at $340.66/cwt, up 10.7% year over year. — Derrell S. Peel, Oklahoma State University Extension livestock marketing specialist
2024 Year-To-Date (19 weeks) Last 7 Weeks % Change from 2024 Slaughter Fed. Insp. Steers +0.7 -1.4 -5.5 Heifers -0.3 -2.6 -5.8 Fed +0.3 -1.9 -5.6 Dairy Cows -11.4 -8.4 -11.0 Beef Cows -18.8 -17.0 -14.9 Cows -15.4 -12.8 -13.0 Bulls -7.7 -12.0 -18.0 Total -3.0 -4.1 -7.1 Beef Production Fed. Insp. Fed +2.8 +1.2 -3.3 Nonfed -12.7 -9.7 -10.7 Total +0.1 -0.5 -4.4
