The cattle market failed to find stronger footing this past week, as rumors swirled surrounding the reopening of the southern border to Mexican cattle imports—a claim that USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins refuted. Still, the markets headed lower another week.
“There is no logical or quantifiable reason for the market top since everyone in the cattle industry is fully aware the tightest fed cattle supplies lay ahead for many months,” wrote Cassie Fish, market analyst, in The Beef on Wednesday. “But market confidence has been shredded and once that occurs, it’s difficult if not impossible to repair—at least in the short-run.”
Live cattle futures failed to find recovery over the week. The December contract lost about $12 to close at $218.77, and the February contract lost more than $12 to close at $216.75.
“Today, fear, disbelief and anger are just a few of the emotions in ample supply,” Fish said. “But futures markets are immune and in this day and age, are ruthlessly quick to get where they are going. Right now the market appears to be on a mission to find a tradeable low. Just how low the market will go is up for debate by traders and chart technicians—though no one really knows until the market has actually gotten there.”
Cash trade for the week was about 70,000 head. Live steers sold from $225-232, and dressed steers sold from $355-365.
Cash trade for the week ending Nov. 2 totaled 55,948 head. Live steers averaged $230.84, and dressed steers averaged $358.66.
The national weekly direct beef type price distribution for the week of Oct. 27 to Nov. 3 was the following on a live basis:
• Negotiated purchases: $230.90.
• Formula net purchases: $241.67.
• Forward contract net purchases: $206.47.
• Negotiated grid net purchases: $245.86.
On a dressed basis:
• Negotiated purchases: $358.82.
• Formula net purchases: $380.39.
• Forward contract net purchases: $330.87.
• Negotiated grid net purchases: $371.40.
Boxed beef prices traded steady over the week. The Choice cutout lost less than a dollar to close at $377.97, and the Select cutout also lost less than a dollar to close at $360.76.
“Wholesale beef buyers don’t want to get caught paying up too much with futures and cash fed cattle prices falling,” Fish said on Thursday.
Slaughter through Thursday totaled about 456,000 head, compared to 457,000 head a week earlier. Total slaughter for a week earlier is projected at 559,000 head, compared to 573,000 head for the prior week. There was no actual slaughter report released for total slaughter two weeks earlier due to the government shutdown.
“Also operating in the background is worry over heavy job layoffs the past two months hurting demand and uncertainty regarding the Supreme Court’s decision over the legality of the current imposed global tariffs,” Fish said.
Feeder cattle
Feeder cattle futures saw another week of plummeting levels. The November contract lost about $20 to close at $322.05, and the January contract lost about $19 to close at $315.60.
The CME Feeder Cattle Index lost about $7 to close at $349.42.
Corn futures traded mostly sideways. The December contract lost 2 cents to close at $4.28, and the March contract stayed unchanged at $4.43.
“Unfortunately, feeder cattle sales could likely soften a tick in the countryside as buyers react to the board,” wrote ShayLe Stewart, DTN livestock analyst, in her Thursday midday comments.
Iowa: Russell Livestock in Russell sold 2,582 head on Monday. Compared to the last auction two weeks earlier, steers under 600 lbs. sold $3-9 lower, while heavier steers sold sharply lower. Heifers also sold sharply lower. Benchmark steers averaging 707 lbs. sold for $335-355, averaging $346.84.
Missouri: Joplin Regional Stockyards in Carthage sold 5,500 head on Monday. Compared to a week earlier, feeder steers sold $10-30 higher and feeder heifers sold steady to $15 higher. Benchmark steers averaging 715 lbs. sold from $351-362, averaging $353.51.
Oklahoma: Oklahoma National Stockyards in Oklahoma City sold 5,400 head on Monday. Compared to a week earlier, feeder steers sold $15-25 higher and steer calves sold $20-30 higher. Feeder heifers and heifer calves sold $15-25 higher. Benchmark steers averaging 762 lbs. sold from $331-351.50, averaging $350.86.
South Dakota: Sioux Falls Regional in Worthing sold 1,378 head on Monday. Compared to a week earlier, there was a limited offering of steer and heifer calves and they were not well tested. Yearling steers and heifers sold $20-40 higher. Benchmark steers averaging 773 lbs. sold for $378.
Utah: Producers Livestock in Salina sold 2,043 head on Wednesday. Compared to the last auction, feeder cattle sold sharply higher on calves and yearlings. Benchmark steers averaging 714 lbs. sold for $345-361, averaging $352.63.
Wyoming: Winter Livestock in Riverton sold 3,388 head on Tuesday. Compared to the previous auction, yearlings sold $11-15 higher, with instances of $17-22 higher. Feeder steer calves under 600 lbs. traded sharply higher, with instances of $35-65 higher, and over 600 lbs. sold up to $30 higher. Heifer calves sold $2-12 higher, with instances of $15-22 higher. Heifer calves weighing 550 lbs. sold unevenly steady, with instances of $10 lower. A group of steers averaging 674 lbs. sold for $354.50-376.25, averaging $367.28. — Anna Miller Fortozo, WLJ managing editor
