Cattle and beef markets rocketed out of the gate coming into 2025. With no post-holiday wavering, all cattle and beef markets moved higher in the first half of January—setting new record price levels to start the new year. This continues the trend of the last three years. Cattle prices began to move higher after 2021 and increased more sharply in 2023-24.
In Oklahoma auctions, for the week ending Jan. 17, the price of 500-pound steers (M/L, #1) was $361.88/cwt, up 18.1% year over year and up 111.1% from the same week four years ago in 2021.
For 800-lb. steers, the price was $269.07/cwt, up 21% year over year and up 105.1% in the last four years. The U.S. calf crop peaked cyclically in 2018 at 36.3 million head and decreased for the last six years to a projected 33.1 million head in 2024. Figure 1 shows the average volume of stocker and feeder receipts including the general downtrend since the recent peak in early 2019 and indicates a continued tightening of cattle numbers.
The five-market fed steer live price was $203.56/cwt for the week ending Jan. 17, up 17.3% from one year ago and up 85.9% from January 2021. Daily five-market fed steer prices hit $200/cwt for the first time ever on Jan. 7 and reached as high as $205.37/cwt on Jan. 15. Higher fed prices are expected ahead.
The Oklahoma price of average dressing boning cull cows was $124.31/cwt the week ending Jan. 17, up 21.1% from one year ago and up 149.5% from the same week in 2021. Cull cow prices ranged from $136.82/cwt for high dressing breaker cows to $110.09/cwt for low dressing lean cows.
The weekly Choice boxed beef price for mid-January was $333.51/cwt, up 17.7% year over year and up 58.2% over 2021 levels. The rib primal price for the week ending Jan. 17 was $508.06/cwt, up 2.4% year over year and up 50.2% from the same week in 2021. The latest loin primal price was $393.99/cwt, up 4.9% over last year and up 49.7% from 2021. The end meats are stronger relative to the middle meats, with the chuck primal price at $303.91/cwt, up 33.2% year over year and up 60.5% since 2021. The round primal price currently is $302.66/cwt, up 36.1% from one year ago and up 65.9% from 2021.
The strong cattle and beef price trend coming into 2025 is expected to continue as cattle inventories and beef supplies tighten further in the coming months. However, while cattle and beef markets are very strong internally, external shocks from political uncertainty along with U.S. and global macroeconomic jitters may cause short-term shocks and short-lived market setbacks. Volatility is likely to accompany a bullish market expectation. — Derrell S. Peel, Oklahoma State University Extension livestock marketing specialist
