Global beef markets are tightening as Brazil’s record-setting exports collide with rising U.S. tariffs and shrinking domestic supply, according to RaboResearch’s Q3 2025 Global Beef Quarterly report. The study warns that geopolitics and seasonal conditions are reshaping trade flows and pushing global cattle prices higher even as production volumes contract.
“Northern Hemisphere countries continue to stand out at record prices,” said Angus Gidley-Baird, senior analyst of animal protein for RaboResearch. “But prices in the U.S. and Canada have moderated in recent weeks, suggesting some of the heat is going out of the market. Meanwhile, prices in Southern Hemisphere countries continue to increase.”
He continued, “The reduced volumes of beef in the North American market, plus what appears to be a slight improvement in the Chinese market, have generated stronger demand for Southern Hemisphere beef suppliers. This demand is now flowing through to cattle prices.”
Brazil’s record exports
Brazil’s beef industry is setting new records even as it confronts mounting trade barriers. According to the report, Brazilian beef exports surpassed 300,000 metric tons (mt) in July, a 17% year-over-year increase, while export revenues surged 46% to $1.7 billion. Year-to-date exports have grown by 13% in volume and 30% in value.
China and the U.S. remain Brazil’s largest buyers, together accounting for 56% of the country’s export volume and 59% of its revenue. Chinese buyers accelerated shipments ahead of an import investigation now postponed to Nov. 26, while U.S. importers rushed to secure supplies before new U.S. tariffs took effect in August.
Even with U.S. tariffs now totaling 76.4% (a 40% addition to the existing 10% and 26.4% duties), RaboResearch expects Brazilian exports to the U.S. to remain strong through 2025, projecting a 15% year-over-year increase to 263,000 mt. However, the report warns that volumes may decline by 10,000-15,000 mt per month in the coming months as tariffs tighten their grip and U.S. seasonal beef demand eases.
On the supply side, Brazil faces structural constraints. Domestic beef availability dropped 2.2% (about 83,000 mt) in the first half of 2025, as export growth outstripped production. RaboResearch projects an overall 2% decline in Brazilian beef supply in 2025 despite strong export demand.
U.S. market is adjusting
While Brazil breaks export records, the U.S. market is grappling with tighter domestic supplies and shifting trade patterns. RaboResearch projects that U.S. cattle slaughter will drop by 2 million head in 2025, a 6% decline from last year and the steepest annual decrease since 2014. Despite this, high-quality beef remains plentiful. From January to July, a record 84.3% of steer and heifer carcasses were graded USDA Prime or Choice, supported by heavier fed cattle weights averaging 25 pounds more.
Imports have become critical to meeting U.S. demand, RaboResearch said. First-half 2025 beef imports surged 25% year over year, with Brazil leading the way, followed by Australia at 272,000 mt (up 35%) and Uruguay at 97,000 mt (up 51%).
On the other hand, RaboResearch noted that exports are in a downward trend. Without registration renewals from China, exports are on pace to be 10% lower in 2025. The lone bright spot was that beef exports to Korea are 8% higher at 156,000 mt.
The profitability picture in the U.S. remains sharply divided. Cow-calf producers and feedyards are thriving, with cash margins on pace to break $600 and $400 per head, respectively. By contrast, processors face their weakest weekly gross margins since April 2012, squeezed by high cattle prices and softening wholesale beef values.
Global trends
The tightening beef market extends well beyond Brazil and the U.S. RaboResearch’s report highlights that global cattle prices have continued to rise through the second quarter, supported by contracting production across multiple regions.
Australia’s beef production rose 11% year over year in the second quarter, supported by strong seasonal conditions and larger cattle inventories, pushing exports to record monthly volumes exceeding 150,000 mt in July. New Zealand, by contrast, experienced a 17% year-over-year decline in production in the second quarter, accompanied by a corresponding drop in exports. However, its average export value reached a record high, reflecting strong global demand for lean trim.
Mexico’s beef sector is grappling with supply constraints linked to a New World screwworm outbreak, which has suspended live cattle exports to the U.S. and restricted internal cattle movement. Despite these challenges, beef export volumes rose 2% in the first half of 2025, with notable growth to South Korea, Hong Kong and Canada, while imports from Brazil surged to 45,000 metric tons, narrowing the gap with U.S. shipments.
According to RaboResearch, global beef markets will remain tight and volatile through the year’s end as contracting supplies and shifting trade flows continue to support higher prices worldwide. Production is forecast to decline by approximately 2% in 2025, primarily due to sharp decreases in Europe, New Zealand and the U.S., with modest increases in Australia and China offsetting the losses. — Charles Wallace, WLJ contributing editor
