The world economy matters more as the planet “shrinks” through globalization.
The World Trade Organization (WTO) recently released its quarterly World Trade Outlook Indicator (WTOI). The outlook suggests that the “trade recovery of 2017 should continue.”
The WTOI is a sort of meta-index that measures the current direction of world trade.
“A reading of 100 would indicate trade growth in line with recent trends, a reading greater than 100 would suggest above trend growth, while a reading below 100 indicates below trend growth,” explained the WTO.
This most recent indicator pegs trade growth at 102.3; a slightly upward steady.
“Component indices of the WTOI are mostly favourable,” noted the WTO’s announcement of the quarterly report. “Container port throughput (104.3) and air freight (103.2) are firmly above trend, indicating strong current shipments of goods. Meanwhile, export orders (102.8) have reached their highest level since 2011, pointing to sustained recovery. Weaker results are observed for automotive products (101.0), agricultural raw materials (100.8), and electronic components (94.1), which could indicate a weakening of consumer sentiment.
It said overall however the results are “somewhat stronger” than the last quarterly forecast released in September 2017.
Domestic predictions
U.S. predictions of near-term future trade in beef and cattle looks promising from a certain perspective. In the most recent World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, beef trade is expected to be just a shy 5 million pounds short of equal.
In the February WASDE report, beef imports are expected to be 3.030 billion pounds. At the same time, exports are expected to be 3.025 billion pounds. This is an improvement over the January WASDE report, which projected a 45-million-pound beef trade deficit on lower export estimates of 2.985 billion pounds.
The USDA’s Economic Research Service’s (ERS’) most recent Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade report (November 2017) put dollar values on those exports and imports. The outlook report estimated the value of 2018’s beef exports will be $6.3 billion, up from the earlier estimate of $6.1 billion. However, the value estimate on beef imports rose comparably to $4.9 billion.
However, the USDA’s outlook report also includes value estimates on imported cattle and calves, which is not reflected in WASDE’s estimates. Projected numbers of cattle and calves imported into the U.S. for 2018 are estimated at $1.7 billion.
ERS trade data through the end of December 2017 (most recent complete) shows that imports of cattle during 2017 were up from 2016 at 1.81 million head compared to 1.71 million. However, 2017’s cattle import volume was the second lowest seen since 2004. — WLJ
