During his long-range weather webinar last Tuesday, DTN’s Senior Ag Meteorologist, Bryce Anderson, drew his audience’s attention to timing.
He pointed out that unusual volumes of rain happening at unusual times earlier this year had delayed corn plantings by over two weeks in some parts of the Corn Belt. He also pointed out that weather predictions out of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) call for an uncharacteristic cold snap in summer, with temperatures about 10-15 below average in the immediate future.
“Is there going to be an early frost?” he asked, immediately answering that he didn’t think so. “But even the average first frost date might be too early for full crop maturity this year.”
Despite the most recent Crop Progress report showing 76 percent of the nation’s corn crop at the “dough” stage—compared with the five-year average of 77 percent for this week—corn denting and condition is lagging.
“First frost dates are worth keeping in mind,” cautioned Anderson. “The average first frost dates of fall—and this is information compiled by NOAA and USDA—in the Northwest and northern Midwest … are right around that late September to first of October time frame.”
Whether early or average, if the first frost hits the parts of the Corn Belt that planted late, the consequences boil down to the strong likelihood of reduced yields and the need to run the driers more. Anderson told audiences of farmers who have laid aside additional propane on the expected need to dry corn out more than usual.
“That’s where we are right now,” he summarized.
