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Thanksgiving, the second-largest U.S. food holiday, has long been defined by the tradition of a turkey centerpiece on family tables. However, according to a recent CoBank report, shifting consumer preferences, convenience trends and supply challenges have cast uncertainty over the future of the tradition.
“Most consumers think about cooking a whole turkey only once a year,” said Brian Earnest, animal protein economist with CoBank. “And even then, attention is in decline. Other animal protein segments, like beef and pork, are taking note of shifting consumer purchasing behavior. They want in on the Thanksgiving action, and consumers are interested.”
CoBank said whole retail turkey consumption during the 2023 holiday season hit its lowest point since 1980, at just 4.04 pounds per capita. While turkeys still dominate retail advertisements ahead of Thanksgiving, USDA’s feature activity index for key weeks has sharply declined, with frozen turkey promotions down 36% from 2018.
The report noted these figures exclude no-price promotions like “buy one, get one” offers or deals tied to spending thresholds, as well as the growing popularity of prepared Thanksgiving entrees. Holiday promotions heavily influence what shoppers purchase, with Thanksgiving showcasing the popular loss-leader strategy to boost foot traffic. Retailers often price turkeys very low—or even offer them for free—expecting sales of other Thanksgiving meal essentials to offset their losses.
Fresh whole turkeys were featured at an average discounted price of $1.48/pound two weeks before Thanksgiving, up from $1.27/lb. during the same period last year, according to Circana data. The most popular sizes, 10-15 lbs. and 16-24 lbs., averaged $1.34/lb., compared to $1-1.10 last year, which excludes further discounts or free turkey offers.
Turkey promotions accounted for 11.9% of all protein ads, tripling from a week earlier, with frozen whole turkeys making up half of the ads. Despite increased promotional activity, lackluster demand has kept wholesale turkey prices stagnant, with Expana’s 16-20-lb. tom turkey quotation at $1.07/lb., down 18 cents from last year and well below the record highs of 2022.
As retailers prepared for Thanksgiving features in January, turkey inventories were projected at their lowest levels in four decades, signaling reduced availability for 2024. The animal protein industry continues to face challenges, including high operating costs, labor shortages, regulatory pressures and disease outbreaks, CoBank noted.
Despite lower placement numbers suggesting a significant decline in turkey availability, cold storage inventories of whole turkeys peaked in September at 246 million lbs., up 4% year over year but still 100 million lbs. below 2018 levels. According to Earnest, this indicates a market shift toward smaller turkey supplies. Ham inventories showed similar trends, remaining steady year over year but down 61 million lbs. compared to 2018 peaks.
“So how will the market deal with a 160 million-pound-decline in combined frozen whole turkey and ham availability from its peak in 2018?” Earnest asked. “Traditions are changing; this might be the ‘new norm’ as consumption is trending downward for traditional center-of-plate offerings. Marketers are being challenged to creatively market turkey meat and thrive through innovation. If consumers are becoming comfortable with the declining availability of whole turkeys around the holidays, producers should consider more closely evaluating the overall product mix.”
Earnest noted while whole turkey sales may be declining, ground turkey sales are up 5% year over year and are second in the ground category behind ground beef.
Despite a decline in whole turkey sales, a Kroger survey conducted by its data science and insights arm, 84.51º, reveals that nearly 90% of households plan to celebrate Thanksgiving this year, with traditional favorites leading the way. Turkey remains the centerpiece for 78% of respondents, making it the most popular protein choice, followed by ham at 15%. Other options, including chicken, roast beef, brisket and tofu, collectively account for 7%.
While 43% of surveyed shoppers plan to splurge on their Thanksgiving meal, many remain focused on saving money. A majority (71%) seek out sales, deals and coupons, with private-label products gaining traction as a cost-saving option.
The top five Thanksgiving meal essentials identified by respondents are turkey (83%), stuffing (55%), mashed potatoes (49%), pumpkin pie (30%) and gravy (30%), reflecting a strong preference for classic holiday staples, Kroger said. Cranberry sauce remains a divisive dish; while 20% of respondents consider it essential, it also ranks as the most avoided item at the holiday table. — Charles Wallace, WLJ contributing editor
