Lance Honig is chief of the Crops Branch at USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), overseeing all of the crop-related statistics that NASS provides. The agency produces more than 400 reports every year in an effort to provide real and timely data for virtually every aspect of U.S. agriculture. Many of these reports affect producers on a regular basis and all contain valuable and useful information.
“Producers probably don’t specifically open up the report that we published and say, ‘Let me make some decisions,’” Lance told WLJ. “But indirectly, the information that they’re using to make their decisions is in most cases tracking back to the information that we published.”
NASS’ crop-estimating programs cover acreage, yield, production, price and value for more than 100 crop commodities. The Crops Branch at NASS is responsible for about 225 crop-related reports every year, including the Crop Production and Crop Progress reports.
“Just to put that in perspective: Think about the 365 days in a year, throwing out the weekends and federal holidays, and you realize that’s pretty close to a report every day,” Lance said. “I think that puts a little perspective around the volume of information that we are putting out there to support everybody across agriculture, almost on a daily basis.”
Sharing this information is essential, Lance says, because it is critical for decision making and is produced and provided in an unbiased manner.
Ag connection
Lance grew up on what he said was a modest-sized crop and livestock farm in northeast Kansas, continuing his higher education at Kansas State University, where he obtained a bachelor’s degree in mathematics. As a farm kid with a passion for both agriculture and numbers, it couldn’t have been a better fit for Lance to come across NASS, which tied the two together. After more than two decades of serving various roles within the Crops Branch, Lance landed his current position at the top in 2008.
“I have a developing and growing appreciation for how information can benefit all aspects of agriculture and being able to give back to the ag community without being on the farm,” Lance shared. “There are so many different ways that you can be a part of agriculture. This is the way that I feel I can contribute back with my background and my skillset.”
He added with a laugh, “That doesn’t make me the most popular person every day. Sometimes on report days, I don’t call home either.”
But as he explained earlier, the role of NASS is to provide accurate numbers, whether they are the numbers people want to see or not. The sooner you find out the report numbers—regardless of how favorable—the sooner you can position yourself the way you need to, and the sooner you can recover if you’re not positioned right, he said.
Having a personal connection to agriculture makes it even more important for Lance to support farm and ranch operators across the country with the best possible information.
In addition to Lance, many employees at NASS have a background in agriculture.
“I can tell you there is something special about NASS employees,” Lance said. “It’s just a different group of people. We care deeply about agriculture, the work we do to support our industry, and getting the numbers right.” He added that although there are more folks coming in who don’t have a traditional background in agriculture, they are assimilated into the ag way of life at the department.
Report accuracies
NASS releases a calendar in advance every year, setting each report’s release date and time. The reports become available to everyone at the same time, with no one—not even other USDA employees or government members—able to catch an early sneak peek.
“We are a statistical organization first, which means we care about the numbers,” Lance said. “My goal is for the numbers to be as accurate as possible. It doesn’t matter who wants to see what in those numbers, it is about making them as accurate as possible.”
To highlight and underscore the security for the more sensitive reports, such as the monthly crop production and annual cattle inventory reports, NASS deploys an entire “Lockup” procedure to ensure no one obtains early access to the reports and scores an advantage in trading on the commodities market. NASS field offices submit encrypted estimates to the headquarters in Washington D.C., which remain encrypted until the Lockup facility area is physically secured. This includes stationing an officer at the entry point, locking and alarming doors, covering windows and turning off phone and internet connections.
Only authorized personnel can enter the Lockup area, and they cannot leave until the Lockup concludes and the report is publicly released. All cell phones and wireless devices must remain outside the area, and the Lockup area is continually monitored for cell phone and wireless transmissions.
Even the secretary of Agriculture sees the report for the first time at the same time as members of the public. Although he (or his designate) signs each report to certify its release and he is briefed on its contents, it is moments after the report is released that he learns what the contents are.
“He’s not saying I like them. He’s not saying I agree with them,” Lance explained. “He’s saying this is what the reports are because they’re based on the data. They’re not based on anything political or anything of that nature.”
In fact, NASS has zero political appointees. Every employee within the agency is a career federal employee, Lance said. Regardless of the party in charge at the White House, the NASS employees are separated from politics.
Obtaining information
Much of the information provided in the NASS reports comes from producers across the country answering surveys and sharing data.
“To this point in time, we still find that this is the most accurate information that we have to support these important reports and estimates,” Lance said.
Producers can be involved by not only answering surveys but learning about the report process firsthand. Visitors are able to watch the Lockup process in D.C. at about 20 different events throughout the year.
“We have had thousands of folks come through and see the process over the years,” Lance said. “I’ve yet to see one person who didn’t leave saying, ‘Wow, I had no idea exactly how this worked and how diligent you are about getting these things right.’”
Sometimes report revisions do happen. Producers may recall earlier this summer when NASS released revised estimates for corn and soybean acreage in June, taking many analysts by surprise when soybeans were found to be estimated much lower than expected, and corn higher, than in earlier reports.
In addition to surveying farmers themselves, NASS also relies on decades of historical data to compare to survey results and incorporates data from other USDA agencies as well as satellite-based information.
“This year was a great example where the data we had led us to publish estimates that were not terribly consistent with what a lot of folks thought,” Lance said. Data released over the past few months has stayed fairly consistent with the revised numbers published in June.
“I think this is actually a great example of the value that these reports bring to the marketplace, because we were able to give folks a look at the end of June of an acreage picture that was not what people were expecting but is looking to be very close to what the reality is,” he said.
“That’s part of the value of the process, bringing new information to the marketplace, and bringing accurate information to the marketplace,” Lance concluded. — Anna Miller, WLJ managing editor
