Technology and new innovations have driven agriculture to become more efficient and productive throughout the years. However, one group thinks technology may lead to the end of agriculture as we know it.
Rethinking Food and Agriculture 2020-2030 is an analysis released by “independent think tank” RethinkX. The report analyzes and forecasts the speed and scale of technology and its implications for society. It focuses on new technologies transforming the entire food and agriculture sectors but emphasizes the “inevitable implications” for the cattle industry. Total findings cover all livestock and arable crop farming, global agriculture, and beyond.
The authors’ say their methodology is based on market forces that are “triggered by technology convergence, business model innovation, product innovation, and exponential improvements in both cost and capabilities.”
RethinkX’s stated mission is to inspire a global conversation about the threats and opportunities of technology-driven disruption and focus on how to have a more equitable, healthy, resilient, and stable society.
Transformation of ag
“Given the magnitude of the disruption, society should be prepared for the dramatic changes to an industry that has not seen this scale of disruption in thousands of years,” the report read.
The group says the reason for this massive disruption is likely due to the economics of protein, according to the group.
“The cost of proteins will be five times cheaper by 2030 and 10 times cheaper by 2035 than existing animal proteins, before ultimately approaching the cost of sugar.”
RethinkX alludes to alternative meat proteins replacing animal-derived products, and their cost equating to less than half of conventional protein. As a result, the group sees cattle numbers dropping by 50 percent, and “the cattle farming industry will be all but bankrupt.”
This result is predicted by the rapid advancements in precision biology, specifically precision fermentation. This is a process of programming microorganisms to produce complex organic molecules. Meaning, scientifically engineered molecules can be uploaded to a “molecular cookbook” database, where food engineers can design products in the same way a software designer designs an app.
The report calls this method of food production “completely decentralized” and “much more stable and resilient than industrial animal agriculture,” stating that animal agriculture has almost reached its limits of scale, reach, and efficiency.
“Modern alternatives will be up to 100 times more land efficient, 10-25 times more feedstock efficient, 20 times more time efficient, and 10 times more water efficient,” RethinkX says in the report.
Acknowledging “modern foods” have already entered the ground meat market—i.e., plant-based meat and the development of cell-cultured meat—the group estimates through 2021-2023, adoption will accelerate rapidly.
“Product after product that we extract from the cow will be replaced by superior, cheaper, modern alternatives, triggering a death spiral of increasing prices, decreasing demand, and reversing economies of scale for the industrial cattle farming industry, which will collapse long before we see modern technologies produce the perfect, cellular steak,” the report summarizes.
Key report findings
RethinkX predicts the replacement of conventional meat products with precision fermentation products and meat alternatives will be 50-80 percent cheaper. As a result, they forecast the U.S. beef and dairy industries’ revenues will decline 50 percent by 2030 and nearly 90 percent by 2035.
This would further impact crop production because the volume of crops needed to feed cattle would also decrease 50 percent, as would revenues for feed production. RethinkX continues to say farmland values would drop 40-80 percent as a result.
“The average U.S. family will save more than $1,200 a year in food costs. This will keep an additional $100 billion a year in Americans’ pockets by 2030,” the report predicts.
Looking at the environmental side of things, the group estimates 60 percent of land used for livestock and feed will be “freed up” by 2035, allowing for the opportunity to dedicate the land to reforestation efforts to maximize carbon sequestration.
RethinkX further proposes greenhouse gas emissions as a result of less cattle will drop 60 percent by 2030 and decline 45 percent in the ag sector as a whole. This would also lead to less water use, which the group predicts will decline by 35 percent in the entire agriculture sector.
The report does note that half of the 1.2 million jobs in the U.S. beef and dairy industry will be lost by 2030, climbing towards 90 percent by 2035, but counteracts this with estimates of 700,000 jobs in the precision fermentation industry.
The group predicts that trade relations will shift because food production will be less constrained by geography and climate and major animal product exporters will lose “geopolitical leverage” over import-dependent countries.
The choice to make
The group believes the disruption of food and agriculture due to technology is inevitable because modern products will be “cheaper and superior in every way.”
“Decision-makers must also recognize there are no geographical barriers to the food and agriculture disruption, so if the U.S. resists or fails to support the modern food industry, other countries such as China will capture the health, wealth, and jobs that accrue to those leading the way,” the report concludes. — Anna Miller, WLJ editor
