While the expansion of gray wolf and Mexican gray wolf populations is widely seen as a conservation victory, a new University of Arizona study reveals that even modest wolf depredation can slash ranch revenues by nearly 30%. Meanwhile, California officials marked a milestone in wolf recovery, with a statewide population now topping 50 wolves.
As wolf populations continue to rebound across the U.S., a new economic analysis from the American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF) based on the University of Arizona study highlights the financial toll ranchers bear as they navigate rising depredation rates, increased management costs and ongoing challenges with compensation.
“While the University of Arizona study focused on Mexican gray wolves in the Southwest, the underlying economic risks it identified aren’t unique to that region,” said Daniel Munch, AFBF economist. “Ranchers in the Northern Rockies, Pacific Northwest, and Great Lakes states are facing similar pressures as wolf numbers climb.”
According to Munch, the most immediate impact of wolf presence is direct livestock loss, most often young calves, each valued at $1,336 in 2024. The Arizona model shows that even a modest 2% calf loss on a 367-head ranch results in a net income reduction of approximately $5,200. Higher losses, such as 14%, could cut net income by over $42,000. If a cow is killed, long-term losses compound, with each animal’s value estimated at $2,673 in lost future productivity and herd stability.
Weight loss adds another layer of economic strain. The study found a 3.5% reduction in weaning weight, or about 18.4 pounds per calf, results in nearly $3,700 in lost value for an 80-head operation. In areas with heavier wolf activity, where weight loss can reach 10%, losses climb past $10,600 annually.
Ranchers also report spending an average of $79 per cow—or about $55 per calf—on conflict avoidance, including added labor and protective measures. Even without a single confirmed loss, those efforts alone reduce net returns by nearly 20%. When combined with modest depredation and weight loss, annual revenue for the average ranch can drop by 28%.
Nationally, these impacts add up. Using USDA data and wolf presence by county, AFBF estimates over $128 million in annual costs to ranchers—$60 million in management expenses, $18 million in calf losses and $50 million from reduced weights.
Despite the availability of state and federal compensation programs for livestock losses caused by wolves, ranchers often face significant barriers to accessing them. According to the University of Arizona study, 55% of surveyed ranchers reported at least one wolf depredation that went uncompensated. In many cases, the time required—six to 10 hours per incident for locating, reporting and documenting the loss—is uncompensated and adds to the burden.
Even when compensation is approved, it rarely covers the full economic impact. Munch noted the USDA’s Livestock Indemnity Program typically reimburses only 75% of the animal’s market value and doesn’t account for future lost production, stress-induced weight loss, veterinary care or thousands of dollars in annual prevention efforts.
“For many ranching families, the return of wolves is not just a wildlife management question, it’s a daily reality shaped by decisions made in distant urban centers, often by voters and officials who will never have to look into the eyes of a mother cow searching for her calf,” Munch said. “Ranchers are the ones bearing the real-world costs of policies shaped far from the range. And they’re doing so while continuing to care for livestock, steward the land and feed a growing world.”
CDFW 10-year study
A decade after wolves began returning to California, the state’s gray wolf population has grown to at least 50 individuals across seven packs, according to a new 10-year report from the California Department of Fish and Wildlife (CDFW).
Since 2011, 132 wolves have been detected, with most activity concentrated in the northeast region of the state. In 2023, the Yowlumni Pack in Tulare County became the first pack established outside that region. From 2015 to 2024, the state documented 21 litters and at least 115 pups.
The report also underscores the role of GPS collaring in tracking wolf behavior and mitigating conflicts. From 2017 to 2024, biologists deployed 12 collars across five packs to help monitor survival, dispersal and locate den sites.
Despite management efforts, wolf-livestock conflict remains a concern. Since 2015, 128 confirmed depredation events have resulted in 152 livestock deaths or injuries, most involving cattle, but include sheep and a llama. The Whaleback Pack alone was responsible for 70 incidents. In response, the state legislature allocated $600,000 in 2024 to fund the Wolf-Livestock Compensation Program. As of year’s end, CDFW received applications for 15 confirmed or probable losses totaling nearly $55,000.
CO cattlemen request permit
On July 5, in a letter to Colorado Parks and Wildlife (CPW), the Holy Cross Cattlemen’s Association urged the issuance of a chronic depredation permit, stating that producers had met the requirements by documenting recent wolf attacks, removing known attractants and using non-lethal deterrents.
“The pack’s failure to change its behavior should not be surprising,” the letter read, arguing that CPW must either relocate the Copper Creek Pack or give ranchers the authority to protect their livestock under the commission’s framework.
CPW commissioners decided not to authorize the killing or relocation of the Copper Creek Pack, despite ongoing reports of livestock depredation in Pitkin County. The decision, made during a July 7 special meeting, followed expert testimony but resulted in no specific directive to the agency. — Charles Wallace, WLJ contributing editor
