USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service released the Sheep and Goats report at the end of January, showing all sheep and lamb inventory as of Jan. 1 totaling 5.02 million head, down 45,000 head, or 1% lower from Jan. 1, 2022.
Tyler Cozzens, agricultural economist at Livestock Marketing Information Center (LMIC), told WLJ he was not surprised by the numbers, as this has been a historical trend of 1%-2% over the last few years.
“I think it gets a little bit more nuanced when you start looking at the state level,” Cozzens said. “You saw a little bit of some of that contraction in California in Texas. We did see some growth specifically in South Dakota and Kansas; there were a little bit of inventory level changes in the middle part of the country.”
Regionally, states in the Southwest reported the biggest declines, led by Arizona, down 10% to 90,000 total sheep and lambs. States in the Midwest and lower Plains saw an increase, with the biggest increase in Kansas up 9% to 71,000 head. Most states with the largest inventory were lower, with the biggest decline in California, down 4%, or 25,000 head, to 550,000 head. This was followed by Texas down 4% to 675,000 head, Idaho down 4% to 220,000 head and Colorado down 3% to 415,000 head.
Cozzens said the decline reflects the drought, particularly in the West, with persistent drought and the lack of feed availability. Cozzens said he would be watching inventory levels in Kansas, Nebraska, Oklahoma and Texas throughout the year to see what happens with the drought and inventory levels.
Brent Roeder, Montana State University Extension sheep and wool specialist, told WLJ the decline in herd numbers is not only attributable to the drought, but also to the economy and imports. He believes consumers were switching to imported lamb, as the price of American lamb was double that of imports, and consumers felt some economic tightening.
Also experiencing a decline of 1% were breeding sheep at 3.67 million head and ewes one year and older to 2.87 million head. California saw the most significant decline in breeding ewes, with a 9.3%, or 25,000 head, decrease from a year earlier to 245,000 head. Wyoming fell 10,000 head (4.7%) to 205,000 head, while Colorado was at 153,000 head, down 2,000 head, or 1%.
According to Roeder, the northern Plains retained 30,000 more feeder lambs due to cull ewe prices being higher than lamb prices.
“Producers culled a lot of the older ewes and kept more lambs on farm, and that’s why I think USDA considered them market lambs,” Roeder said. “What’ll probably happen is producers are going to hang on to those lambs into the spring, and if the market jumps, then they are going to market those lambs. If we don’t see a jump in the market, producers are probably going to keep them either as breeders or offer them next fall as replacement lambs.”
Total market sheep and lambs were steady with the prior year at 1.35 million head. According to LMIC, market lambs under 65 pounds and 65-85 lbs. were down 2.9% and 2.1%, respectively. These declines were offset by gains in the 85-105 lbs. category, and the over 105 lbs. category, which were up 4.9% and 0.9%, respectively, from the prior year.
The 2022 lamb crop was down 2% from 2021 at 3.11 million head, and the lambing rate was steady at 107%. California reported the most significant decline of 25,000 head, or 10.4%, to 215,000 head. California also had the largest decline in lambing rates, from 96% in 2021 to 79% in 2022. Texas, Colorado and Idaho each fell 5,000 head to 345,000, 175,000 and 140,000 head, respectively.
Cozzens said the lamb crop reflects the overall production efficiency, which is reflected in the lambing percentage at 107%, which has been steady over the last few years. Cozzens continued that producers in the northern part of the country are seeing lambing percentages well above that figure. That is why you are seeing inventory numbers higher or remaining the same in that portion of the country.
Shorn wool production in the U.S. during 2022 was 22.2 million lbs., down 1% from 2021. Sheep and lambs shorn totaled 3.17 million head, down 1% from 2021. The average price for wool sold in 2022 was $1.53/lb. for a total value of $33.9 million, down 11% from $38.2 million in 2021. — Charles Wallace, WLJ editor
