USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) Sheep and Goats inventory report showed a stronger-than-average decline in numbers, with all sheep and lambs in the U.S. as of Jan. 1 down about 2% to 5.03 million head.
“The 1.9% decrease in sheep and lamb inventory to just over 5 million head was not unexpected, but it was slightly stronger than the historical average trend of less than 1% annual decline over the last decade,” Tyler Cozzens, agricultural economist at the Livestock Marketing Information Center (LMIC), told WLJ.
The five top sheep and lamb states combined for a 95,000 head decrease, accounting for most of the 100,000 head decline in inventory for 2023. Cozzens said the declines were more extensive than expected, with California decreasing 30,000 head, Colorado down 15,000 head, Texas down 25,000 head, Utah down 10,000 head and Wyoming declining 15,000 head.
NASS reported increases in inventory in the Mid-Atlantic region and in Arizona, Nebraska and Oklahoma. Cozzens noted increases ranged from 5,000-10,000 head in some states, such as Ohio, Oklahoma and Pennsylvania, but were not enough to offset the decreases.
NASS reported breeding sheep numbers stood at 3.67 million head, marking a 2% decrease from the 3.74 million head recorded in 2023. Ewes aged 1 year and older totaled 2.87 million head, also showing a 2% decline from the previous year.
Cozzens said the lambing percentage stood out in the report as it was 103.4% compared to 104.6% last year and the five-year average of 106.7%. Cozzens attributed the decline in lambing percentage to a 32,000 head decrease in ewes 1 year and older. The lower breeding flock contributed to the 2.2% decrease in the lamb crop to just over 3 million head.
NASS also reported market sheep and lambs were numbered at 1.36 million head, a similar 2% decrease, with market lambs representing 94% of the total market inventory and market sheep comprising the remaining 6%.
Shorn wool production saw a 2% decline, totaling 22.7 million pounds in 2023. The average price per pound for sold wool stood at $1.56/pound, resulting in a cumulative value of $35.3 million. California and Wyoming jointly led in wool production, each contributing 2.3 million lbs., followed closely by Colorado at 2.28 million lbs. Utah and Idaho were the next in production numbers, with 2.2 million lbs. and 1.51 million lbs., respectively, highlighting the distribution of wool production across key states.
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Death losses declined during 2023 by 4%, or 200,000 head, for sheep, and 3% lower for lambs to 365,000 head. Colorado and Montana were among the few states to experience an increase in loss, with 16,000 head lost each.
It is worth noting that NASS revised the Jan. 1, 2023, inventory after reviewing slaughter, import and export data, and new survey information. NASS reported that the total 2022 sheep and lamb inventory was revised up 110,000 head to 5.13 million head.
According to Cozzens, the upward revision resulted in all sheep and lamb inventory as of Jan. 1, 2023, to increase 1.3% from 2022. The Jan. 1, 2023, lamb crop was revised 11,000 head lower to 3.099 million head, down 1.9% from the 2022 lamb crop.
Opportunity
Cozzens said LMIC expects sheep and lamb slaughter to be 1-2% lower in 2024 due to the 1.9% decline in all sheep and lamb inventory and the 2.2% decline in the lamb crop.
Based on decreased production numbers, economists from Oklahoma State University and Texas A&M University noted that prices for sheep will have an opportunity to climb in 2024.
David Anderson, professor and Extension economist at Texas A&M AgriLife Extension, told WLJ prices will be higher in 2024 based on less domestic production, low amounts in cold storage and limited imports through most of 2023.
Anderson cautioned that the wide price gap between U.S. and Australian legs will likely encourage imports, but he noted a recent surge in U.S. lamb production.
“I should point out that it looks like we have had a surge in lamb production in the last couple of weeks,” Anderson said. “The inventory report showed more lightweight market lambs than a year ago, so some short-term supplies may be larger than last year leading into the Easter season. Later, production should fall off. “
Travis Hoffman, sheep specialist for North Dakota State University Extension, concurred prices will increase due to the decline in production.
“We have the opportunity to rebuild our U.S. numbers to compete against imported lamb and match demand, as feeder and slaughter lamb prices are forecasted to increase 3-7% in 2024 and 2025,” Hoffman said. “With lower U.S. sheep supply, the opportunity exists for near or greater than $200/hundredweight slaughter lambs this summer, resulting in a profitable 2024 lamb crop enterprise.”
Hoffman noted lamb consumption in the U.S. was 1.1 lbs. per person per year for 2023 and has room for growth domestically and abroad. — Charles Wallace, WLJ contributing editor
