Two years of drought have severely depleted U.S. hay stocks. The recently released Dec. 1 hay stocks from USDA showed total stocks of 71.9 million tons, 16.4% below the previous 10-year average and the lowest Dec. 1 stocks on record in the data back to 1973 (Table 1).
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Each of the top 10 states for hay stocks was down compared to the 10-year average, and collectively were down 20.8% from the 2012-21 average Dec. 1 stocks level. The largest hay stocks on Dec. 1 were in Texas, 25.8% below the 10-year average for the state. Other top 10 states were down from the 10-year average, ranging from Tennessee, down 10.9%, to Oklahoma, down 32.7%.
Table 1 also presents 2022 production of all hay, alfalfa hay and other hay for the U.S. and the top 10 states of each hay category. All hay production in 2022 was down 12.4% from the previous 10-year average, with alfalfa hay down 13.2% and other hay down 11.9%. Hay production in 2022 was the lowest on record in data that began in 1974.
Total hay production in the top 10 states combined represents 43% of U.S. total hay production and was down 18.7% compared to the 10-year average for those states. The top 10 hay production states include eight of the top 10 beef cow states, along with the No. 1 dairy cow state, California, and the No. 3 dairy cow state, Idaho.
The top 10 state lists for alfalfa and other hay production indicates that alfalfa hay tends to be more important in the northern half of the country, along with California and Arizona, while other hay production is more important in the central and southern Plains, mid-south and eastern seaboard. Kansas and Nebraska are the only two states that feature in the top 10 lists for both alfalfa and other hay production.
Decreased Dec. 1 hay stocks mean that the cattle industry could face additional liquidation this winter and is particularly vulnerable to severe winter weather in the next couple of months. The December storm already will have taken a chunk out of the reported Dec. 1 hay stocks. New forage production is several months away in the South and even farther away in the northern regions. — Derrell S. Peel, Oklahoma State University Extension livestock marketing specialist
