At CattleFax, producers turn to data to guide their decisions, and behind much of that insight is Patrick Linnell, whose background in ranch life helps him explain the markets in a way producers actually relate to.
Linnell grew up in Hermiston, OR, immersed in his family’s commercial cow-calf operation for as long as he can remember. When he and his brother, Brady, reached the age to start showing in 4-H, the family established a small registered Red Angus herd the brothers hauled to shows across the Northwest.
Linnell went on to earn bachelor’s degrees in animal science and agricultural business from Colorado State University (CSU). While there, he competed on multiple judging teams, starting with wool judging as a freshman before moving on to the meats and livestock judging teams. He later completed his master’s degree in agricultural economics at CSU under the guidance of Dr. Stephen Koontz.
Linnell joined the CattleFax team in January 2018 and today serves as director of cattle market research. In his role, he leads research and analysis on cattle markets, the CattleFax membership and the hog and pork industry.
WLJ: Have you always had an interest in cattle markets or research? Did you predict your industry role would look like it does now?
Patrick Linnell: My first exposure to cattle market analysis was at a bull sale dinner presentation when I was in middle school where our CEO, Randy Blach, was speaking. I thought it was fascinating but never thought I would end up working with him on the cattle markets on a daily basis!
But I think that helped plant the seed for my later interest in cattle markets and economics. Early in college, animal nutrition and meat science really interested me as potential career paths, but I really began to gravitate towards my economics and commodity classes later into my undergraduate degree.
WLJ: What does a typical day look like for you in your role at CattleFax?
PL: I haven’t found that typical day yet! My role as director of market research entails a solid mix of research and analysis, as well as presenting that information to producers. I spend quite a bit of time analyzing data and market trends myself and in collaboration with our team.
At the same time, a large portion of my time is dedicated to sharing the information and insights, and most importantly, trying to help producers make decisions based on our view of the marketplace. I also communicate many of our insights and analysis in our written publications, webinars and in-person presentations at various meetings.
WLJ: How do you bridge the practical ranch world and the “big data/market forecast” world?
I think my upbringing and personal involvement in the industry really helps me keep things in perspective. What are the big things that matter to the market, and what are the things that matter to the producer? With a million moving parts in the market, it’s important to focus on the things that matter and less on the noise. When speaking to producers, we try to be educational, but also practical. You don’t need a ranching background to do that, but it’s certainly helped me.
WLJ: What aspects of your role do you find most rewarding or challenging?
PL: The most challenging and exciting part of my role is that markets never stop. There is always something changing or new surprises in the market to understand. The most rewarding part is doing our best to help individual producers and the industry navigate the ever-evolving market environment.
WLJ: What key factors do you expect to shape the cattle market in 2026?
PL: Outstanding beef demand is likely to remain one of the key themes for the market. Despite record beef prices, consumer demand has been amazingly resilient. The industry’s investment in quality, consistency and safety continues to pay dividends. Beef has also benefitted from the protein craze as a delicious, nutritious protein option.
Tight cattle numbers will also be another key market factor in 2026. Even with the recent capacity reduction announcement, the industry still has too few cattle for the processing capacity. This will favor leverage in the market still favoring cattle producing segments of the industry.
WLJ: How do you see cow herd rebuilding progressing?
PL: We see evidence of a slow rebuilding in the beef cow herd starting to take shape. There are mixed signs of increased heifer retention. Nothing near the widespread, aggressive heifer retention of the last cycle, but just enough to start the expansion process at the national herd level.
Importantly, with beef cow numbers so small and cow slaughter numbers so small, the industry just doesn’t need to retain as many heifers to begin to turn inventories. The expansion pattern is likely to be a slow and measured process in the years ahead.
WLJ: How might continued volatility influence producer decisions in 2026?
PL: There is a laundry list of other factors that have weighed on producer decision making and made expansion slow to unfold. Some of those things have improved, but the volatility is not expected to go away. If anything, volatility may increase. Uncertainty remains high, in both industry-specific factors and outside factors. That will keep many producers from jumping in with both feet into expansion.
WLJ: As the cycle shifts and inventories shrink or rebuild slowly, what risk management practices should cow-calf and background/feedlot producers be watching?
PL: The market has been more or less straight higher since the COVID lows in June of 2020. That has made risk management less important for cattle-producing segments, but especially the cow-calf producer. Now as inventories look to rebuild, managing price risk becomes more important, even as the fundamentals may suggest a historically strong market to continue.
Livestock Risk Protection is a great tool for the cow-calf producer if futures and options aren’t the best fit. Drought insurance is another great tool, especially here in the West.
WLJ: Calf and feeder prices hit record highs in 2024 and 2025. What factors will determine whether those highs continue, hold or retreat in 2026?
PL: We think there are strong odds that the cycle highs in cattle prices were established in 2025 with a perfect storm of record-tight cattle supplies, outstanding beef demand and government policy decisions. Prices across classes of cattle and beef are likely to average lower in 2026, but still the second highest on record.
WLJ: How do you see carcass weights, harvest capacity and beef production volumes trending in 2026?
PL: Beef production will be lower in 2026, driven by tighter fed slaughter, especially in the first half of the year. Carcass weights are already huge and likely to keep growing, but are unlikely to offset the decline in numbers. In terms of harvest capacity, Tyson announced the closure of the Lexington, NE, plant and transition to a single shift at Amarillo, TX. Those capacity reductions may be enough to get the industry through this cycle, although 2026 will still be a tough environment for packer margins.
WLJ: Given global economic uncertainty, what’s your read on how macroeconomic factors could influence cattle prices in 2026?
PL: A growing domestic and global economy will be critical for supporting beef demand. While there are challenges, U.S. unemployment remains low and incomes continue to grow. Upper-income brackets in particular are doing very well, which is supportive to middle meats. The health of the lower-income consumer is more concerning, and that translates more towards demand for roasts and ground beef.
The global economy is also still growing, which is positive for export demand. There are economic headwinds, but the fundamentals of the economy remain generally positive and that’s positive for beef.
