It was a grand event in New Orleans, LA, the annual cattle industry convention. NCBA sponsors the event that over 9,000 folks attended. This event has become so large that it is hard to focus but that is what you must do to get the most out of it.
NCBA develops their policy agenda for the coming year at this event. In a nutshell, they intend on focusing on fake meat and making sure that we compete on a level playing field. They’re working with USDA and FDA to gain transparency on lab-grown meat protein. They will embark on the “Fake Meat Facts Campaign” to start the process.
Foreign trade and opening new markets are perhaps the most pressing issue facing the cattle industry. Secretary of Agriculture Sonny Perdue showed up at the closing general session and told the crowd that the administration is working hard to overcome the many non-tariff and tariff trade barriers that U.S. cattlemen face. NCBA encourages President Donald Trump to complete the USMCA trade deal, get fair tariffs into Japan and get her done with China. He also announced that USMEF will receive funding to promote trade through the Agriculture Trade Program.
Dan Halstrom, CEO at USMEF, said the funding will help defend existing market share and develop new markets, which is important when trade disputes and preferential trade agreements have intensified competition in many key markets.
Dietary guidelines are coming back around and NCBA intends to promote beef in a heathy diet, where it belongs. The last time the dietary guidelines process was debated the commission leaned to the vegan side of the fence. They are now asking Perdue to expand the commission and place people on it who are pro-meat to balance the conversation.
Then there is regulatory reform. They want to make sure the farm bill is fully implemented, which means vaccine banks and conservation funding, and hours of service for the agriculture trucking industry. They want the administration to finalize the WOTUS regulations. Then there is my favorite, modifying the Endangered Species Act, National Environmental Policy Act and reducing federal land grazing regulations.
Frankly there is too much going on at this meeting to absorb much of anything. It’s always good to see old friends and make a few new ones but there are so many people going so many directions it’s difficult to get much done. Almost a lack of unity.
I focused most of my attention on the federal lands committee meeting, where we learned about wildlife corridors. Wyoming Fish and Game studied the migration of mule deer and found they migrate from Jackson Hole down to Rock Springs, 150 miles. The danger is that environmental groups will want to develop policy that will force private landholders to comply with new environmental regulation or land use plans. That part of Wyoming has a lot of federal land mixed in with private ground. Then we had a panel discussion on recreational degradation and how folks are trashing our open spaces.
Then, of course, there was the Cattle Fax market forecast. They expect the market to be down on average across all classes of cattle. Larger beef supplies and overall meat protein supplies will pressure the markets. However, expect to see wholesale and retail prices to advance slightly. The on-farm share of the beef dollar will decline.
Issues to watch going forward include export trade. It’s vital to get these trade deals settled so we can export more product. The overall economic outlook shows a potential recession late in 2019 or 2020, which could slow consumer spending. Then there is the new political environment. Democrats controlling the House support more free trade deals, but, at what price? They are already talking of higher taxes. They also expect interest rates to take another hike. And they are concerned that farm incomes have been at breakeven levels for five years and to expect more industry consolidation.
In other words, it’s time to watch your cattle inventory. The cattle cycle is about to crest. We need to export even more beef to keep the markets stable. Agriculture demonstrated that we can produce food and lots of it. But this talk about feeding 10 billion people by 2050 is a long way away we don’t have to show we can produce that much food today. We can feed the world. But new technology in production agriculture must be accepted around the world. Banning GMOs is a joke, which some countries have done. Keep your powder dry and manage your risk. — PETE CROW
