I would have to say the USDA’s drought map is in the best shape it’s been in a while. I can’t recall a time with as many major winter events as we’ve seen in various parts of the country.
The Cyclone Bomb that moved through Colorado seemed huge and kept everyone in the metropolitan areas in their homes. The snow it left behind wasn’t all that much—6 to 8 inches—but the winds that came with it were very abnormal—60 to 80 mph. Winds were so strong they pushed railroad cars off a bridge in New Mexico, and bunches of trucks were blown over.
Nobody likes the sideways snow because that’s when they can drift up and start trapping cattle. I called around to a few ranchers in the area and they lost a few calves; most thought it might be between 3-5 percent. Ranchers who had some tree cover, windbreaks and some hills and draws fared well.
But let’s turn to the massive rains and snows on the West Coast. The Far West and Great Basin states have been dry for a couple years. Utah, Nevada and Arizona all received moisture. California has received so much moisture they don’t know what to do with it. All the reservoirs are full, and the mountains are at 160 percent of normal snowpack. Those producers will have more winter grass than they know what to do with. They don’t have the cattle to consume it. And now we must look forward to mudslides and a buildup of fire fuels again.
Oregon and Washington have had tremendous winters also with large snowpack. Irrigators should be in good shape this summer. We all heard of the dairy in Sunnyside, WA that lost 1,500-2,000 lactating cows to freezing cold weather. One cattle feeder told me he saw geese feeding from the feed bunk in his feedlot, something he’s never seen before.
Then let’s move over to Montana and the northern tier of states where they experienced the Polar Vortex with subzero temperatures for an extended period during calving season. A lot of those ranchers like to calve early in that country, especially purebred operations. Most commercial guys have learned their lessons and have backed off their calving dates. Nonetheless, expect to hear that calf losses will be larger than normal.
And thankfully the southwest part of the country has received good winter moisture, way better than normal. For the most part, the entire nation has received good winter moisture, but a little too much in some areas. But, still pray for those spring rains.
Perhaps the most damaging and devastating is in the Dakotas and Nebraska where there is a tremendous amount of agriculture infrastructure. Snows and rains and thawing have put a tremendous demand on the river systems, which are used for grain transportation. But stop and think about it: The Missouri River and the Platte River has bottlenecked downstream. It’s in the eastern portions of these states where the agriculture infrastructure is most intense. Grain elevators, food processing plants, railroads and highways move a lot of ag products to markets in this region. This area is a hub for grain and livestock production and distribution. Sixty-five of Nebraska’s 93 counties are under emergency declarations.
We’ve heard of entire feedlots being cut off from roads and power, entire hog operations wiped out, ethanol plants shut down and plenty of damaged grain, lots of cattle misplaced and we won’t get a handle on death loss for weeks.
It’s been a tougher than normal winter, and calving season has been long for many of you. We’ve heard a lot of bad stories from some in our cattle family. But be assured that there is help on the way. When livestock disasters occur, livestock people always come to their aid.
The last cattle inventory report said that we had 250,000 more feeder cattle to work through this year, which is only two days’ processing at the packer. We’ll never really know what kind of calf loss we’ll have nationwide, but 250,000 lost calves doesn’t sound unrealistic.
I would also say that we’re looking at a pretty good spring and early grass, which should stimulate the feeder cattle markets. Winter is just about over, and calving should get easier, providing we don’t have any more perfect storms. — PETE CROW
