This year is going out like a lamb for the cattle business—things are nice and quiet. Now we have 2020 to plan for or look forward to dealing with.
Fake meat is on the top of the list. Beyond Burger and Impossible Burger made a big splash in 2019. They have a tremendous marketing crew. I’ve never seen a new food product get this much media attention since lean finely-textured beef captured every headline in 2012.
The fake meat guys say their market is current beef eaters. I love how Burger King is promoting it with actors dressed up like cowboys and cowgirls saying, “I’m a fool!”
Yes, you did get fooled, “cowboy.” A Reuters report from a couple weeks ago said Burger King has been selling about 40 Impossible Whoppers a day per store in the stores offering them and about 230 real beef Whoppers a day per store. That’s the same number of real burgers as they were selling before offering the fake ones. It doesn’t sound like they’re converting anyone.
The fake meat rollout was big, and it got people curious. That’s it. But now, everyone who wanted to try it has. The curiosity factor is over, and the fad will pass. It’s time for these look-alike items to mature and earn business because of the product, not the hype. I’ve tried the Beyond Burger. I’ve don’t see the fake burgers competing on taste or price. But we still need to be vigilant in promoting the benefits of real beef.
Another thing on the horizon: Animal ID is coming, and we better get used to the idea. It’s going to slowly be pushed down our throats whether we like it or not.
Undersecretary Greg Ibach told us at the Range Beef Cow Symposium that USDA isn’t going to drop animal ID. They backed off a plan to require RFID bangs tags at the end of October, but they’ve been trying this sort of thing for years. Remember National Animal Identification System from the late 2000s?
Animal ID and full traceability will become a reality because of concerns over disease, biosecurity, and trade. Other big beef producers around the world have government-mandated traceability. As we grow our export market share, it will become something importers demand.
On the trade front, this deal with China will be good for us. It will mostly affect hogs, beans, and corn instead of beef. But non-tariff barriers to trade will still be a problem with China. They still don’t want ractopamine or GMO corn and use their sanitary and phytosanitary measures to get around their trade responsibilities with WTO. But it’s a good start if we can get our beans, corn, and pork into that market and start reclaiming our share of that market.
Brexit is happening soon and that will mean opportunities for U.S. ag. Boris Johnson swept the elections for prime minister. Johnson was the conservative option and he’s said Brexit is a top priority. Great Britain will be out of the European Union by the end of January 2020. Once that gets done there will be opportunities for us to get in better trade deals with the UK. The EU’s regulations mean we don’t trade much beef to them. The recent EU vote means we’ll get a bigger share of the 45,000-tonne tariff rate quota they made for us in the first place, but that’s still got to be beef from non-hormone-treated cattle. Do we have enough of that? Can we be sure we’ll get to keep that larger share of the quota? Time will tell.
Something else to think about: Can we produce more beef to feed the world? We keep hearing about our packing infrastructure being close to tapped out. After the Tyson fire we got to see what increased Saturday kills could do. But anyone who’s tried to sell cull cows has seen what not enough chain space in cow plants can do too.
There’s also the question of if we’re going to have the space to raise cattle in the long term. Land regulations are something we’re always going to have. The question is, how much? With the election coming up in 2020, there’s two ways I can see it going. If President Trump wins a second term, we’ll keep seeing less regulation. This administration has been really friendly and accessible to agriculture and President Trump has been cutting land-use regulations and red tape. But if one of the Democrat candidates win in 2020, there will certainly be more regulation.
There’s a lot that can happen in 2020. In the meantime, Merry Christmas! — PETE CROW
