The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) late last month projected La Niсa will return for the third consecutive winter, leading to drier-than-average conditions in the West and southern Plains.
La Niсa is characterized by unusually cold ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific compared to El Niсo, which is characterized by unusually warm ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific. NOAA projects there is a 75% chance of La Niсa starting in December and running through February and a 54% chance of El Niсo-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral during February-April 2023.
The National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center predicts drier-than-average conditions across much of California, the Southwest, the southern Rockies and the southern Plains. Wetter-than-average conditions are projected for areas of the Pacific Northwest, northern Rockies, Great Lakes and Ohio valley. The remainder of the U.S. falls into equal chances for below-, near- or above-average seasonal total precipitation.
Due to La Niсa conditions, extreme drought will continue to persist across much of the West, the Great Basin and the central to southern Great Plains. Drought conditions are expected to improve across the northwestern U.S. over the coming months.
“Drought conditions are now present across approximately 59% of the country, but parts of the western U.S and southern Great Plains will continue to be the hardest hit this winter,” said Jon Gottschalck, chief of the Climate Prediction Center’s Operational Prediction Branch. “With the La Niсa climate pattern still in place, drought conditions may also expand to the Gulf Coast.”
Temperatures are predicted to be warmer than average in the central Great Basin, in the Southwest and through the southern Plains and lower than average in the Northwest.
“When you combine the characteristic temperature pattern of La Niсa with recent trends, you end up with a warmer-than-average pattern during November-January over nearly the entire contiguous U.S.,” NOAA wrote in the ENSO blog. “Also, the southern plains tend to be drier than average, with more rain and snow falling in the northwest.”
This La Niсa began in September 2020 and will be the third consecutive winter of La Niсa conditions.
“Call it what you like—triple-dip, three-peat, three-bean salad—we are facing the third La Niсa winter in a row,” NOAA wrote. “This is the third time in our historical record of ENSO, which dates back to 1950, that we have had three La Niсa winters in a row. The other stretches were 1973-1976 and 1998-2001.”
There may be some good news, as Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology is predicting a “return to ENSO-neutral in early 2023.” ENSO-neutral typically marks a transition from La Niсa to El Niсo, when ocean temperatures and atmospheric winds over the Pacific Ocean are near their long-term average. — Charles Wallace, WLJ editor
