National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC) officials are predicting an above-normal fire potential for portions of the Plains and the Southwest in the coming months due to the continued presence of La Niсa and the drought.
The latest “National Significant Wildland Fire Potential Outlook” report stated outlooks indicate likely “below-normal precipitation from Texas through the southern Rockies and Great Basin, with above-normal temperatures likely across much of the contiguous U.S. through spring into summer.” Additionally, the monsoon will likely arrive in June, bringing the potential of lighting strikes across the Southwest, Colorado and the southern Great Basin.
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NIFC is projecting an above-average significant fire potential will persist in the Southern Plains and eventually into the Plains until July. NIFC noted severe to extreme drought has increased across Texas and Oklahoma, and no drought improvement is expected through spring into summer. “In fact, drought feedback may lead to a seasonal expansion of ridging and its associated hot and dry conditions from the desert Southwest into the Plains with time,” the report said.
Above-significant fire potential is expected to advance northward across the High Plains during May, with an expansion to eastern Colorado, Kansas and Nebraska during the early summer months, encompassing most of Wyoming and portions of the Black Hills through July.
“However, depending on the length of the warming and drying trend that is possible from late April through May, fire season may increase more quickly than normal or start earlier in the higher terrain over the southern half of the Great Basin,” the report noted.
As sea surface temperatures cool off the coast of California, the dominant high pressure will shift eastward to the Four Corners region and into the Great Basin from the end of June into July.
Most of the Southwest is forecast to have above-normal fire potential in May and June, then lower areawide fire potential with the arrival of monsoons during July.
In the Northwest, NIFC is projecting that above-normal fire potential will likely grow from central Oregon to southwest Oregon and central Washington by July. Above-normal significant fire potential is also forecast to increase across northern California from May into July, with rising potential likely along portions of the Sierra Nevada and foothills. In southern California, significant fire potential will be a little below normal from April through July, with the prospect of shower activity due to the monsoons later in the summer.
Wildfires
The outlook comes as wildfires have ignited in south-central Nebraska and the Oklahoma Panhandle.
The Road 739 Fire in Nebraska broke out on April 7 and quickly grew to approximately 35,000 acres, fanned by high winds. The fire resulted in the brief evacuation of the town of Edison (located 45 miles south of Kearney) and the death of Chief Darren Krull of the Elwood Volunteer Fire Department.
According to the local news outlet KRVN, as of April 8, eight homes, 48 outbuildings and numerous tractors and irrigation pivots were destroyed. As of April 12, the fire was 75 percent contained.
Gov. Pete Ricketts (R) declared an emergency and activated the National Guard to help the 40 departments and 10 state agencies that responded to the fire. A meeting was held with Ricketts, the Nebraska Farm Bureau, the Nebraska Cattlemen and state agencies in Holdrege on April 11 to discuss the impact on farmers and ranchers in the area.
Lexington Livestock in Lexington and Huss Livestock in Kearney are accepting donations and can be reached through their Facebook page, at lexlivestock.com, or by calling 308-324-4663. Nebraska Cattlemen has information on how you can help the families of the firefighters, along with the Hay and Forage Hotline and preparation measures. For other ways you can help, you can go to KRVN.com and look for wildfire relief under the events tab.
In Oklahoma, firefighters got the upper hand on two fires that started in early April in Beaver County, located in the Oklahoma Panhandle. According to the Oklahoma Forestry Services, as of April 13, both the Beaver River Fire, which burned 24,537 acres, and the 23 Fire, which burned 5,696 acres, are fully contained.
Oklahoma State University Extension in Beaver County is compiling a list of producers affected by the fires who may need hay, fencing or other items. You can contact their office at 580-625-3464 or by email at beaverext@okstate.edu.
Ranchers affected by the wildfires can also contact their local USDA Farm Service Agency office to find out what program options are available to assist in the recovery from crop, land, infrastructure and livestock losses and damages. — Charles Wallace, WLJ editor
