By the end of the day on Nov. 29, the markets seemed intent on disappointing analysts’ and market watchers’ predictions. Where they had projected gains, the markets returned disappointment. Hope for gains still held out for Friday, but they were not there by Thursday afternoon.
Just over 21,200 head of negotiated cash fed cattle had been confirmed sold by press time, with roughly half of that sold Wednesday for $114-116 (average $115.86) live and $183-185 ($183.34) dressed, and the other half sold Thursday at $113-114 ($113.72) live and $180-184 ($182.56) dressed. Both days’ prices were lower than last week’s averages of $116.24 live and $183.89 dressed.
Near-term live cattle futures contracts slipped consistently throughout the week. The week-to-week losses were relatively minor at 50 cents for December and 67 cents for February. The contracts settled Thursday at $116.60 and $120.28 respectively.
The beef cutouts also fell last week, though only after getting hopes up on Monday for Choice with $214.45 and on Tuesday for Select with $200.24. By the afternoon of Nov. 29, they had sunk to $212.61 and $198.53 respectively.
Most of the surveyed feeder cattle auctions were in good shape after coming back from the Thanksgiving holiday. Most saw sales volumes up and prices up. Several saw volumes down and prices up, suggestive of improved demand.
In prices, there was still a noticeable two-tiered market for medium and large #1 steers weighing between 700-800 lbs. between calves and yearlings. The spread got more obvious the more south you went.
California: The sales were steady at higher volume last week at the Cattlemen’s Livestock Market in Galt. All classes of feeder cattle were called steady. Benchmark steers traded between $130-146.50.
Colorado: The sale volume at the Winter Livestock auction of La Junta was almost double what it had been the week before. Steer calves were up $5-8 with instances of up $10. Yearling steers were up $2-3. Heifer calves under 600 lbs. were up $1-2 and steady for heavier calves. Three lots of #1, 7-weight yearling steers ranged from $134-146.
Kansas: The Winter Livestock Auction of Dodge City sold over 1,500 more cattle last week compared to the prior sale several weeks ago. There were limited comparable sales, but where they existed on heavy steers, prices were steady to up $4. Heavy heifers were up $3-7. Benchmark steers sold between $128-134 for calves while the one yearling lot averaged $149.50.
Missouri: The sale volume was way up at the Joplin Regional Stockyards at almost 10,000 head sold. Steers of all ages were up $2-5, and heifer calves were steady to up $3. Numerous, but inconsistently-sized lots of #1, 7-weight steers sold between $137-156. Discounts seemed to be given more based on small lot size than anything else.
Montana: The Mile City Livestock Commission sold 3,211 head of cattle, 58 percent of it feeders of some variety. There were few comparable sales. Exceptions were 500-649-lb. steers, which were firm to up $5, and 4- and 5-weight heifers, which were steady to $3 higher. Two lots of #1, 7-weight steer calves sold, with the 20-head lot averaging $144.52 and the 3-head lot averaging $137.25.
Nebraska: Sales were slightly down by volume, but up by price, at the Huss Platte Valley Auction. Steers sold steady to up $6 and heifers sold steady to up $5. Most of the feeder offering was calves. Prices for benchmark steers, calves and yearlings, ranged from $146-165.
New Mexico: Over 4,600 head of feeder cattle sold at the Clovis Livestock Auction last week. Steers were an uneven steady to up $1 for calves under 600 lbs., steady to strong for heavier calves, and steady for yearlings. Heifer calves under 600 lbs. were up $3-5, while heavier calves and yearlings were up $1. Benchmark calves ranged from $124.25-128.50 while benchmark yearlings were $139-143.50.
Oklahoma: The sales volume at the OKC West-El Reno sale has gotten back to normal, namely, the five-digit range. With over 12,000 head sold last week compared to the prior week’s 7,135 head, there were few specific trends. Overall, feeders were called up $2-4. Prices ranged from $139-169.75.
South Dakota: Compared with the pre-Thanksgiving week sale, the Hub City Livestock Auction sold steer calves mostly $1-4 higher and heifer calves mostly $2-4 higher. There were no good comparisons on yearling feeders. Most of the calf offerings were described as “coming off the cow” with a few offerings of weaned calves (30-60 days). Two lots of #1, 7-weight steer calves both averaged just pennies off of $152.50.
Wyoming: The Torrington Livestock Commission sold fewer cattle for higher prices last week. Light steer calves were called $3-5 higher, while those over 500 lbs. were steady to up $4. Heifer calves were up $6-10 for lights and there were no yearling price trends, but two lots of benchmark yearling steers sold for $140 and $154 for the six-head lot and the 39-head lot respectively.
The near-term feeder futures saw worse losses than live cattle futures, with triple-digit losses across the board on Thursday alone. Compared to the Nov. 23 settlement, by Thursday the January contract had lost a net $3.40 with $145.98 and the March contract had lost a net $2.25 with $143.68.
“Feeder contracts were powered lower by triple-digit losses,” noted DTN’s Livestock Analyst, John Harrington.
“Sinking deferred live futures were obviously negative in that regard. In digging bigger discounts, traders seem convinced the cash index is likely to slide lower over the next quarter or so.” — Kerry Halladay, WLJ editor
