Monday markets
Live cattle are starting the week out strong while the feeder cattle market goes to bat with rallying grain prices. On Friday, the cattle market will see a new Cattle on Feed report, along with the midyear Cattle Inventory report.
The live cattle market has started the week off strong, with the board supporting a modest rally and boxed beef prices printing higher to start the day off. August live cattle are up $0.45 at $135.37, October live cattle are up $0.72 at $140.27 and December live cattle are up $0.47 at $145.92.
As expected, the cash cattle market hasn’t seen any interest yet, and if packers vaguely support this week’s cash market as they have been over the last month, thin volumes and steady to somewhat weaker prices can be expected. Given that we are officially past the halfway point of July, a doggish cash cattle market is expected, so our attention needs to focus on beef demand and throughput.
The majority of last week’s trade developed on Wednesday, but every day last week saw a few scattered deals. Southern live trade had a range of $136-140, mostly $137, about steady with the prior week’s weighted averages. Northern dressed deals had a huge range of $224-234, mostly $230, roughly $2 lower than the previous week’s weighted average basis in Nebraska. Last week’s negotiated cash cattle trade totaled 85,183 head. Of that, 71 percent (85,183 head) were committed to nearby delivery, while the remaining 29 percent (24,917 head) were committed to deferred delivery.
Boxed beef prices are higher, with the Choice cutout up $1.58 to $270.49 and the Select cutout up $0.31 to $242.10, with a movement of 32 loads.
Feeder cattle
The feeder cattle market is trending lower to start the week off as corn prices keep the market’s bull spreaders at bay. With the nearby corn contracts rallying a confident 13-14 cents higher, the market has drifted lower and even fallen below the recently conquered resistance of $176.
However, as Northern Livestock Video Auction starts the week off with their Summertime Classic Sale, with 125,000 head set to sell, if buyer demand continues to perform like it has over the last month, the contracts could gain enough support to trend steady to somewhat higher.
On Friday, the cattle market will see the midyear Cattle Inventory report, and total beef cow numbers are expected to be down 2.5-3.5 percent, which would push the nation’s herd to its lowest point since 2015. If USDA does indeed report these findings, then the feeder cattle market will likely rally regardless of what corn does. August feeders are down $0.92 at $175.47, September feeders are down $1.42 at $178.25 and October feeders are down $1.30 at $181.15.
Missouri: Joplin Regional Stockyards in Carthage sold 10,000 head on Monday. At the mid-session, compared to a week earlier, feeder steers and heifers were trading steady. Benchmark steers averaging 716 lbs. sold between $167-175 and averaged $172.09.
Oklahoma: Oklahoma National Stockyards in Oklahoma City sold 12,000 head on Monday. At the mid-session, compared to a week earlier, feeder steers and heifers were lightly tested in early rounds. Benchmark steers averaging 740 lbs. sold for $170. — ShayLe Stewart, DTN livestock analyst
