Friday markets
Friday’s market didn’t amount to much as the livestock contracts drifted lower throughout the day, and the cash cattle market didn’t see any more hungry bidders rush to its market. Heading into next week’s trade, all eyes will be on the feeder cattle market to see if it can sustain its new range.
Live cattle contracts closed lower, and the cash cattle market’s performance throughout the week wasn’t much better. August live cattle closed 47 cents lower at $134.92, October live cattle closed 37 cents lower at $139.55 and December live cattle closed 87 cents lower at $145.42.
Throughout the week, Southern live trade averaged $137, which is steady with last week’s weighted average, and Northern dressed cattle traded for mostly $230, which was $2 lower than Nebraska’s weighted average last week.
Through Friday’s USDA report, we can see that 69,982 head of cattle traded this week in the cash market. Monday’s report will include any late trade that developed, but again, this week’s business was thinly traded. It’s likely that the market keeps with this sideways to somewhat lower tone over the next three to four weeks, as seasonally boxed beef prices and negotiated cash sales could endure some pressure.
Next Friday, the market will see another Cattle on Feed report released, as well as the midyear Cattle Inventory report.
Friday’s slaughter is estimated at 123,000 head, 2,000 head less than a week ago and 4,000 head more than a year ago. Saturday’s slaughter is projected to be around 54,000 head. This week’s slaughter is estimated at 677,000 head.
Boxed beef prices closed mixed: Choice is up $1.16 ($268.91), and Select is down 12 cents ($241.79) with a movement of 82 loads. Throughout the week, Choice cuts averaged $268.27 (up $1.11 from last week), and Select cuts averaged $242.03 (up 22 cents from a week ago), and the week’s movement of cuts, grinds and trim totaled 603 loads.
Monday’s cash cattle call was steady to somewhat lower. As packers juggle committed cattle supplies and their need to support the cash market, it’s likely that the market’s tone over the next three to four weeks continues in this steady to somewhat lower trend.
Feeder cattle
The feeder cattle market ran out of steam by Friday’s market, but still, the spot August contract was able to close above the $176 trend line, which the market blew through earlier in the week. August feeders closed $2.55 lower at $176.35, September feeders closed $1.95 lower at $179.67 and October feeders closed $1.37 lower at $182.45.
Next week, the market will be tested to see if it can sustain above $176, which will be critical for the chart’s performance. With a little support from the cash market, feeders should have no problem keeping the board above $176, as demand has been hot for feeder cattle.
Oklahoma’s Weekly Cattle Auction Summary shared that compared to two weeks ago, feeder steers and heifers traded $2-5 higher, steer calves traded $1-5 lower and heifer calves sold $1-4 higher. The market’s best demand was seen on the heavier-weighted feeders, as that will require fewer days on feed. Slaughter cows traded $7-8 lower, and slaughter bulls sold $9 lower. The CME Feeder Cattle Index for July 14: down $1.43 at $172.62. — ShayLe Stewart, DTN livestock analyst
