While live cattle futures dipped back below the $200 mark over the week, analysts point to potential market corrections ahead as packers cut production and boxed beef prices adjust to seasonal demand.
Live cattle futures were several dollars lower. The February contract lost about $5 to close at $199.55, and the April contract also lost about $5 to close at $196.52.
“CME cattle futures had become oversold on most technical indicators and have staged a recovery rally today,” Cassie Fish, market analyst, wrote on Thursday in The Beef. “Live cattle futures managed to hold their 2025 low, rallying back from the brink this week.”
Cash trade through Thursday was light, totaling about 20,000 head. Live steers sold from $202-203, and dressed steers sold from $320-321.
“Scattered bids are currently being offered in the cash cattle market, but aside from the light movement that we saw earlier this week in the South—the market hasn’t traded any more cattle,” wrote ShayLe Stewart, DTN livestock analyst, in her Thursday comments.
Cash trade for the week ending Feb. 9 totaled 72,948 head. Live steers averaged $207.19, and dressed steers averaged $327.19.
Slaughter through Thursday totaled about 454,000 head, compared to 476,000 head a week earlier. Total slaughter for that week is estimated at 584,000 head. Actual slaughter for the week ending Feb. 1 was 601,785 head. The average steer dressed weight was 952 lbs., 4 lbs. above a week earlier.
“Even though packers have bought cattle cheaper this week than last week by about $4/cwt, red ink has forced companies to slash production even further this week, the weekly slaughter estimated now at 564k head compared to 608k a year ago and 584k a week ago,” Fish said.
Boxed beef prices were about $5 lower on each cutout over the week. The Choice cutout closed at $317.40, and the Select cutout closed at $309.84.
“Boxed beef values made another new low for the move [Thursday], with more downside anticipated as the market succumbs to seasonally poor beef demand and record high retail beef prices,” Fish said.
Feeder cattle
“Mexican cattle import began this week and will play catch up for a few weeks,” the Cattle Report said on Thursday.
Feeder cattle futures were mixed over the week. The March contract lost about $5 to close at $267.97, and the April contract gained about $3 to close at $267.97.
“Overdone directional price movements frequently require corrections and traders sense the vulnerability of the contract that needs to be cash settled but the contract index needs a redo,” the Cattle Report said.
The CME Feeder Cattle Index lost over $3 to close at $275.73.
Corn futures traded sideways, down two pennies to $4.93 on the March contract and down a penny to $5.06 on the May contract.
Colorado: Winter Livestock in La Junta sold 3,009 head on Tuesday. Compared to the last auction, feeder steers sold mostly $2-7 higher, with instances of sharply higher across all weight classes. Feeder heifers under 700 lbs. sold mostly $3-5 higher and over 700 lbs. sold $5 lower. Benchmark steers averaging 720 lbs. sold for $261-286, averaging $274.11.
Missouri: Joplin Regional Stockyards in Carthage sold 7,000 head on Monday. Compared to a week earlier, feeder steers and heifers sold from $5 higher to $8 lower. Benchmark steers averaging 772 lbs. sold from $266-278, averaging $269.24.
New Mexico: Clovis Livestock in Clovis sold 1,537 head on Thursday. Compared to the last auction, steer calves 400-450 lbs. and 500-550 lbs. sold $3 higher, while 450-500 lbs. were $9 lower and 550-600 lbs. sold $11 lower. Feeder steer yearlings 600-850 lbs. sold steady to $6 higher, except for 750-800 lbs. were $15 lower. Heifer calves 350-500 lbs. sold $5-7 lower, 400-450 lbs. were $2 higher and 500-600 lbs. sold $7-8 higher. Feeder heifers sold steady to $8 higher. Benchmark steers averaging 710 lbs. sold for $268-275, averaging $274.63.
Oklahoma: Oklahoma National Stockyards in Oklahoma City sold 4,750 head on Monday. Compared to the previous sale, feeder steers and steer calves sold steady to $5 lower, except 500-600 lbs. sold up to $12 lower. Feeder heifers sold steady to $5 higher. Heifer calves sold $3-6 lower, except 500-600 lbs. sold up to $10 lower. Benchmark steers averaging 772 lbs. sold from $261-278, averaging $269.82.
South Dakota: Sioux Falls Regional Cattle in Worthing sold 5,606 head on Monday. Compared to the last auction, feeder steers under 600 lbs. sold mostly steady, 600-800 lbs. were $5-10 lower and over 800 lbs. traded steady to $2 lower. Feeder heifers under 700 lbs. sold $5-10 lower, and over 700 lbs. were steady to $5 lower. Benchmark steers averaging 722 lbs. sold for $282-305, averaging $297.16. — Anna Miller, WLJ managing editor
