A broad selloff in commodities and the equity markets early in the week toppled the rally cattle futures have experienced for the past few weeks. Choice boxed beef surged, sending the Choice/Select spread to $25.74.
Live cattle futures were lower, with the October contract down $2.55 to $186.62 and the December contract down $2.10 to $186.17.
“There is a lot of good news priced in the futures market already—the cash and boxed beef rally and following a five-week futures market rally, this week is at least a rest week for the bulls,” Cassie Fish, market analyst, wrote for The Beef on Thursday. “For bears, the market could be carving out another more significant top.”
Cash trade was 30,800 head through Thursday. Live steers sold for $187-189, averaging $187.42, and dressed steers for $296-304, averaging $296.43.
According to Fish, with packer margins improving significantly, they appear content to maintain last week’s cattle prices. Bids surfaced at $187 in the South and $296 dressed in Nebraska, with 4.7k head traded so far. Yesterday, 833 steers sold for $186.81 and 785 heifers at $186, but Thursday’s activity signaled packers aiming to build on last week’s large inventory, with an average 5-area steer price of $187.21.
Cash trade for the week ending Oct. 13 totaled 92,611 head. Live steers averaged $187.36, and dressed steers averaged $296.12.
The national weekly direct beef type price distribution for the week of Oct. 7-14 was the following on a live basis:
• Negotiated purchases: $187.51.
• Formula net purchases: $189.01.
• Forward contract net purchases: $188.82.
• Negotiated grid net purchases: $188.70.
On a dressed basis:
• Negotiated purchases: $295.94.
• Formula net purchases: $297.50.
• Forward contract net purchases: $293.44.
• Negotiated grid net purchases: $294.91.
Slaughter through Thursday was estimated to be 488,000 head, 14,000 head above a week earlier. Total slaughter for a week earlier is projected at 586,000 head. Actual slaughter for the week ending Oct. 5 was 611,571 head. The average steer dressed weight was 950 lbs., 9 lbs. above the prior week.
“Never have steer carcasses averaged this high—that’s in any month in any year,” Fish wrote on Thursday. “That’s 28 pounds heavier than a year ago. Weights don’t seasonally top until late Q4 so look for weekly records to occur the rest of 2024 and likely continue in 2025.”
Boxed beef prices continued to climb, with the Choice cutout up $9.31 to $319.26 and the Select cutout up $2.79 to $293.52.
Feeder cattle
Feeder cattle futures also closed lower, with the October contract down $2.55 to $246.72 and the November contract down $4.20 to $245.75. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was up 73 cents to $250.25.
Corn futures were lower, with the December contract down 12 cents to $4.06 and the March contract down 15 cents to $4.21.
Kansas: Winter Livestock in Dodge City sold 3,583 head on Wednesday. Compared to the last auction, feeder steers under 500 lbs. sold $5 lower, over 500 lbs. sold steady to $3 higher and feeder heifers sold $2 lower to $2 higher.
Missouri: Joplin Regional Stockyards in Carthage sold 6,493 head on Monday. Compared to the previous sale, feeder steers under 525 lbs. sold $2-10 higher and heavier weights sold steady to $3 lower. Feeder heifers sold from $5 lower to $6 higher. Benchmark steers averaging 754 lbs. sold from $253-260, averaging $254.78.
Nebraska: Tri-State Livestock in McCook sold 3,347 head on Monday. Compared to the last auction, steers under 550 lbs. sold $2-9 lower and over 550 lbs. were $2-8 higher. Heifers under 500 lbs. sold $5-12 higher and over 500 lbs. were $4-7 lower. A group of steers averaging 742 lbs. sold for $260.
Oklahoma: Oklahoma National Stockyards in Oklahoma City sold 6,825 head on Monday. Compared to a week earlier, feeder steers and heifers sold steady to $2 higher, and steer and heifer calves sold $2-6 lower. Benchmark steers averaging 777 lbs. sold from $242-259, averaging $254.33.
South Dakota: Hub City Livestock in Aberdeen sold 3,590 head on Wednesday. Compared to the previous auction, yearling steers 800-849 lbs. sold mostly steady, 900-949 and 1,000-1,049 lbs. traded $2-6 higher and 950-999 lbs. were $2-4 lower. Yearling heifers 800-849 lbs. sold $2-4 lower. A group of steers averaging 834 lbs. sold for $253-269.25, averaging $265.36. — Charles Wallace, WLJ contributing editor
